The second leg of the 2025/26 Champions League round-of-16 tie between Arsenal (England) and Bayer 04 Leverkusen (Germany) will take place on 17 March at the Emirates Stadium in London. The first leg finished 1:1. Arsenal vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Arsenal
Arsenal drew with Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the first leg, although the home team managed to avoid defeat thanks to a late penalty just a few minutes before the final whistle – 1:1. That stalemate ended the club’s eight-match winning run in the Champions League, but their scoring streak has now stretched to 10 games. At the same time, after four straight clean sheets, the hosts have conceded in four of their last five matches in this competition. To reach the next round, Mikel Arteta’s men need to win the return leg, which the home side have managed in every home match in the 2025/26 Champions League.
- In six of the club’s last seven Champions League matches, they have scored at least three goals.
- There have been goals in both halves in five of the Londoners’ previous six games in this tournament.
- At home, the team have won nine of their last 11 Champions League matches (one draw, one defeat).
Potential Arsenal Lineup (3-4-3)
David Raya – Piero Hincapie, Ben White, William Saliba – Martin Zubimendi, Gabriel Magalhaes, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka – Gabriel Martinelli, Kai Havertz, Viktor Gyokeres.
Defender Jurrien Timber and midfielders Martin Odegaard and Mikel Merino are out injured.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last four Champions League matches (two wins, two draws). Another draw in the upcoming game would take the tie into extra time. To avoid that, the Germans need to win. Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won three of their last four away matches in this tournament. However, the club have lost six straight round-of-16 ties in the Champions League. It is also worth adding that the goal they conceded against Arsenal was the first they had shipped in their previous four matches in this European competition.
- At least one side failed to score in six of Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s previous eight Champions League matches.
- The team have found the net in five of their last seven away games in the Champions League.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen have failed to win nine of their previous 13 away matches in this tournament (five draws, four defeats).
Potential Bayer 04 Leverkusen Lineup (3-4-3)
Janis Blaswich – Robert Andrich, Jarell Quansah, Edmond Tapsoba – Alejandro Grimaldo, Ibrahim Maza, Aleix Garcia, Exequiel Palacios – Christian Kofane, Martin Terrier, Ernest Poku.
Defenders Lucas Vazquez, Arthur and Loic Bade, midfielder Eliesse Ben Seghir, and goalkeeper Mark Flekken are injured.
Referee
Danny Makkelie (Netherlands)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 32;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.7;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 50%.
Arsenal vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Match Prediction
In the first leg, Arsenal had a slight edge, yet still came close to defeat. In the return match, we are confident the home team will try to avoid a similar scenario and secure a third straight place in the quarter-finals within 90 minutes. On home soil, the hosts have produced excellent results, winning nine of their previous 11 Champions League matches (one draw, one defeat), and even high-profile opponents have been beaten at the Emirates Stadium. This season, for example, Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid have both lost there. Meanwhile, Bayer 04 Leverkusen had a very energy-sapping match against those same Munich side in the latest round of the Bundesliga.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are unlikely to force the issue. The visitors understand the strength of the opposition and will most likely adopt a cautious, patient approach. Kasper Hjulmand’s men know how to defend: they have kept clean sheets in three of their last four away games in the Champions League, and they even managed to stop Manchester City’s attack. At the same time, Arsenal have also looked solid at the back. The home side have conceded in only two of their previous 11 home matches in the Champions League, and in seven of those games they did not allow the opposition to score at all.
Prediction: Arsenal to win + Under 3.5 goals
