Azerbaijan vs Iceland: prediction & betting odds 13 November 2025

Matchday 9 of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers between Azerbaijan and Iceland will take place on November 13 at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku. Azerbaijan vs. Iceland: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Azerbaijan

The Caucasian team holds only theoretical chances of securing the second spot in Group D. After four matches, they have just one point, earned in a home draw against Ukraine (1-1). Azerbaijan lost the other three matches. They had better prospects for a second-place finish until the last round, but they lost 2-1 away to Ukraine. Azerbaijan's winless streak in World Cup qualifiers now stands at 14 matches – 2 draws and 12 losses.

• At least three goals have been scored in 7 of Azerbaijan's last 8 matches in this tournament.
• Azerbaijan has lost 7 of their last 8 World Cup qualifying matches.
• In home World Cup qualifiers, the team has lost 5 of their last 6 games (1 draw).

Probable lineup for Azerbaijan (5-4-1)

Salahat Agayev – Bahlul Mustafazade, Jalal Huseynov, Anton Krivotsyuk, Elvin Badalov, Kismet Aliyev – Abdulla Haibulaev, Emin Mahmudov, Toral Bayramov, Rustam Akhmedzade – Nariman Akhundzade.

Goalkeeper Shahruddin Magomedaliyev is suspended. Defender Elvin Jafarguliyev is out due to illness.

Iceland

Arnar Gunnlaugsson's squad has secured just one win in the current qualifiers, which came against Azerbaijan in their first-round encounter (5-0). Subsequently, Iceland lost away to France (2-1) and at home to Ukraine (5-3). In the last round, they unexpectedly drew 2-2 at home against France, keeping their hopes for the second spot alive. However, the battle for second place will likely be decided in the final round against Ukraine. Notably, Iceland has scored the most goals in Group D – 11.

• The team has not won in 9 of their last 11 World Cup qualifying matches (4 draws and 5 losses).
• Three or more goals have been scored in Iceland's last 5 World Cup qualifying matches.
• The team has not scored more than one goal in 5 of their last 6 away games in this tournament.

Probable lineup for Iceland (4-3-3)

Hakon Rafn Valdimarsson – Sverrir Ingason, Victor Palsson, Mikael Ellertsson, Daniel Leo Gretarsson – Stefaun Thordarson, Isak Johannesson, Hakon Haraldsson – Albert Gudmundsson, Saevar Magnusson, Daniel Gudjonsson.

Referee

Nikola Dabanovic (Montenegro)

Matches – 14 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 45;

Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;

Red cards shown – 2;

Average fouls per match – 22;

Penalties – 14%.

Match Prediction: Azerbaijan vs. Iceland

The Azerbaijani team seems to realistically assess their chances and has already lost tournament motivation. In Group D, there were no surprises: as expected, France will take first place, while Ukraine and Iceland will compete for the second spot. Azerbaijan has become the main supplier of points for the other three teams. Even at home, Azerbaijan struggles against mid-level European teams. In their last 14 home qualifiers for major football tournaments, the team has suffered 11 defeats (1 win and 2 draws).

Iceland confidently overcame Azerbaijan in their home meeting (5-0). I predict they will manage their opponents again in the return fixture. Dropping points is undesirable, as Ukraine could defeat France, making the result of Iceland's final match against Ukraine irrelevant. Tournament motivation is crucial for the visitors, so I suggest backing Iceland for a straight win, but without a handicap, as they are less formidable away from home.

My prediction – Iceland to Win