Finland vs Lithuania: prediction & betting odds 9 October 2025

The Matchday 7 fixture of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers between Finland and Lithuania will take place on October 9 at the Olympic Stadium in Helsinki. Finland vs. Lithuania: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Finland

Jakob Friis's side has worsened their chances of reaching the World Cup finals. In the last round, the team visited Poland and suffered a 1-3 defeat. As a result, Finland is now third, trailing Poland, who are in second place, by 3 points. They are also 3 points behind the leading Netherlands, who have a game in hand.

  • At least two goals have been scored in 9 of Finland's last 10 World Cup qualifying matches.
  • In their last 12 home European World Cup qualifiers, the team has won only 3 times (3 draws and 6 losses).
  • Finland has conceded two goals in 5 of their last 7 home World Cup qualifying matches.

Predicted lineup for Finland (5-3-2)

Jesse Joronen – Jere Uronen, Nikolai Alho, Matti Peltola, Miro Tenho, Ville Koski – Kaan Kairinen, Robin Lod, Adam Marhiev – Joel Pohjanpalo, Oliver Antman.

Lithuania

The Baltic team has yet to secure a victory in the current qualifying cycle. In September, Edgaras Jankauskas's side played two home matches, collecting only 1 point. They first drew with Malta (1-1) and then lost to the Netherlands (2-3). Consequently, the team is in 4th place in Group G, 7 points behind the second spot. A loss in this match would eliminate Lithuania from even a mathematical chance of qualifying for the World Cup.

  • Lithuania's winless streak in World Cup qualifiers stands at 7 matches – 3 draws and 4 losses.
  • The team has failed to win in their last 14 away matches in this tournament (4 draws and 10 losses).
  • Lithuania has not scored in their last 6 away World Cup qualifying matches.

Predicted lineup for Lithuania (5-4-1)

Edvinas Gertmonas – Vilius Armalas, Justas Lasickas, Rokas Lekitas, Edvinas Girdvainis, Klaudijus Upstas – Artur Dolzhnikov, Gvidas Gineitis, Gratas Sirgedas, Domantas Antanavicius – Gytis Paulauskas.

Referee

Stéphanie Frappart (France)

Matches – 10 (International matches, 2023–2025);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 23;

Average yellow cards per match – 2.3;

Red cards shown – 1;

Average fouls per match – 21;

Penalties – 30%.

Match Prediction: Finland vs. Lithuania

The Finns need to win the upcoming match. Dropping points against one of the group's underdogs would hinder their chances of competing for one of the top two spots. As shown in their previous home match against Poland, Finland is capable of challenging for at least the second place in the group. They are much stronger at home than away.

Lithuania was not taken seriously even before the tournament began. No surprises have come from the team, and even if they win their remaining three matches, they are unlikely to secure even second place. The team struggles to beat even modest Malta. Additionally, the Baltic side has performed poorly on the road, failing to win in 14 consecutive World Cup qualifying matches. Over the last 9 years in this tournament, Lithuania has scored only 1 goal in 10 away games.

My prediction: Finland to win with a clean sheet

Betting tips 9 October 2025

It’s highly likely that Poland and Finland will be battling it out for second place in their group. In the reverse fixture the Finns came out on top (2:1), yet Poland currently sit above them in the standings.

Poland hold the edge having avoided defeat against group favourites the Netherlands in Rotterdam (1:1). They also boast a better goal difference than Finland, having scored two more, and will enjoy home advantage this time. The last two head-to-heads on Polish soil ended in emphatic victories for the hosts (5:0 and 5:1), although those came in friendlies back in 2016 and 2020. Notably, the scorers then were Kamil Grosicki, Krzysztof Piątek and Arkadiusz Milik, and only the veteran Kamil Grosicki — now 37 — featured off the bench against the Netherlands. The big boost on Sunday will be Robert Lewandowski’s presence, absent from those earlier meetings.

Finland simply don’t have the firepower of their rivals. Their main striker, Joel Pohjanpalo, has spent recent years in Italy’s second-tier clubs. He scored against Poland in Helsinki, but only from the penalty spot, and offered little else in open play. Away from home, Finland have managed three goals, but those came against group outsiders Malta (1:0) and Lithuania (2:2). Against stronger opposition like Norway in a friendly, they drew a blank (0:1).

With home support and superior attacking options, Poland should have too much for Finland. The hosts are well placed to deliver and, at the very least, avoid defeat.

Betting prediction
Poland to win or draw + Poland Total Over 1.5 – Yes
Cf
Odds
41/50
Bet now

Finland have the last chance to try to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. They need to beat Lithuania in Helsinki. In March, the Baltic side managed to end their game versus Finland in a draw (2:2). However, in this game Lithuania will not have enough attacking options.

Despite losing their games versus Norway (0:1) and Poland (1:3) in September, Finland have performed well in this qualifying tournament. In the game versus Poland the Finnish defensive line without Hradecký failed to sustain the offensive actions of the home side (2.15 xGA and 6 shots in target). The Finnish side managed to create only 0.27 xG. Pohjanpalo is still the main leader of the attacking actions of his national team. As for the oother players, only Antman, a Rangers half-back, deserves to be highlighted.

There have been under 3 goals scored in the last 5 games of the current qualifying campaign Lithuania have played. The side failed to score in their two previous away games versus Poland (0:1) and Malta (0:0). To be honest, the priority for Lithuania is to keep the penultimate place as they can hardly reach even Finland. Kučys is injured, this is why the attacking actions will depend on Gineitis, and he’s gonna be an easy target for the Finnish defence.

This match is going to be different from what we saw seven months ago. Both sides tend to play defensively and this will be obvious in the final result.

Betting prediction
Under 2.5
Cf
Odds
4/5
Bet now

Finland vs Lithuania Odds

1X2
DOUBLE CHANCE
OVER/UNDER
BTTS
TOTAL HOME GOALS
TOTAL AWAY GOALS
Bookie1X2

World Cup: previous matches in the tournament

Finland
07.09.25
Poland
Finland
L
10.06.25
Finland
Poland
W
07.06.25
Finland
Netherlands
L
24.03.25
Lithuania
Finland
D
21.03.25
Malta
Finland
W
More matches
Lithuania
07.09.25
Lithuania
Netherlands
L
04.09.25
Lithuania
Malta
D
07.06.25
Malta
Lithuania
D
24.03.25
Lithuania
Finland
D
21.03.25
Poland
Lithuania
L
More matches

H2H: Finland — Lithuania

World Cup
24.03.25
Lithuania
Finland

Group stage

WC Qualification Europe: Group G
Team
Played
Matches played
W
D
L
Goals
G
Points
P
1
Netherlands
  1:1 4:0 -:- 8:0 4 3 1 0
14:3
10
2
Poland
-:-   3:1 1:0 2:0 5 3 1 1
8:4
10
3
Finland
0:2 2:1   2:1 -:- 5 2 1 2
6:8
7
4
Lithuania
2:3 0:2 2:2   1:1 5 0 3 2
5:7
3
5
Malta
0:4 -:- 0:1 0:0   5 0 2 3
1:12
2

Team lineups

The line-ups will be known a few hours before kick-off

Post by:

Andy H
Andy H
Site Manager
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