The Matchday 10 encounter in the 2026 World Cup qualifiers between Italy and Norway will take place on November 16 at the San Siro Stadium in Milan. Italy vs. Norway: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Italy
Gennaro Gattuso's side defeated Moldova 2-0 away in the last round. This victory marked the team's sixth consecutive win in the current qualifying cycle. However, even such an impressive run leaves Italy with only a slim chance of direct qualification to the World Cup finals, as Norway's goal difference is significantly better. Italy secured a playoff spot even before the last round. The team has scored at least twice in six consecutive World Cup qualifiers.
- No more than three goals have been scored in 18 of Italy's last 22 World Cup qualifying matches.
- At home in this tournament, the team has not conceded more than one goal in 14 consecutive matches.
- Italy has opened the scoring in 6 of their last 8 home World Cup qualifiers.
Predicted lineup for Italy (3-5-2)
Gianluigi Donnarumma – Gianluca Mancini, Alessandro Bastoni, Giovanni Di Lorenzo – Manuel Locatelli, Nicolo Barella, Matteo Politano, Federico Dimarco, Davide Frattesi – Francesco Esposito, Mateo Retegui.
Defender Riccardo Calafiori has left the squad due to injury.
Norway
The Scandinavians remain unbeaten, with Ståle Solbakken's side securing a 4-1 victory over Estonia in the last round, marking their seventh consecutive win in this qualification. In the last three matches, Norway has scored at least three times. Overall, the team has netted 33 goals, equalling the scoring record for groups of five teams. In Group I, Norway leads Italy by three points, and only a defeat by a margin of nine goals or more would see them lose the top spot.
- In the last 5 World Cup qualifiers, the team has not conceded more than one goal.
- Away from home, the Scandinavians have won 7 of their last 9 matches in this tournament (1 draw, 1 loss).
- Norway has scored in 8 of their last 9 away World Cup qualifiers.
Predicted lineup for Norway (4-3-3)
Ørjan Nyland – Torbjørn Heggem, David Møller Wolfe, Julian Ryerson, Kristoffer Ajer – Oscar Bobb, Patrick Berg, Sander Berge – Erling Haaland, Alexander Sørloth, Antonio Nusa.
Referee
Alejandro Hernández Hernández (Spain)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2024/25 - 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 31;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.6;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 25%.
Match Prediction: Italy vs. Norway
Gennaro Gattuso has voiced the impossibility of overtaking Norway, also expressing dissatisfaction with the current qualifying system. The Italian head coach's frustration is understandable: even 21 points might not be enough for automatic qualification, and achieving the necessary scoreline to defeat Norway is unrealistic. Moreover, the team only secured victory over Moldova in the last round in the final minutes of regular time. I'm not convinced Italy will be highly motivated to win at all costs. They need to avoid injuries and manage players on yellow cards, as the playoffs await.
Norway, on the other hand, is highly motivated. The team hasn't been to the World Cup finals since 1998, and they can secure their spot with a perfect group stage record. This would be a historic achievement for Norway, which is not used to such success. They also have the chance to break their scoring record, needing just one more goal, which Erling Haaland could achieve single-handedly.
In the first round, the Scandinavians defeated Italy 3-0. I wouldn't be surprised by another victory, but I suggest a safer bet: "Norway to score and not lose"
