Moldova vs Italy: prediction & betting odds 13 November 2025

The Matchday 9 encounter of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers between Moldova and Italy will take place on November 13 at the Zimbru Stadium in Chisinau. Moldova vs. Italy: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Moldova

The team drew 1-1 away against Estonia in their last match. This draw ended a 14-match losing streak in World Cup qualification. For the first time in the current qualifiers, Moldova conceded fewer than two goals. However, they have conceded 26 goals overall, the worst record in Group I. On a positive note, Moldova has scored in two consecutive World Cup qualifiers, a feat not achieved since 2016. With just one point, Lilan Popescu's side is at the bottom of their group and has no chance of finishing in the top two. However, they still have hopes of reaching the finals through their Nations League results.

• At least 4 goals have been scored in 5 of Moldova's last 7 World Cup qualifiers.
• The team has lost 7 consecutive home matches in this tournament.
• In 5 of their last 6 home World Cup qualifiers, Moldova failed to score against their opponents.

Predicted lineup for Moldova (4-5-1)

Cristian Avram – Oleg Reabciuk, Sergiu Platica, Artur Crăciun, Daniel Dumbrăveanu – Artur Ioniță, Vadim Rață, Victor Bogaciuc, Ștefan Bodisteanu, Sergiu Perchun – Ion Nicolaescu.

Defender Vladislav Baboglo is suspended.

Italy

Gennaro Gattuso's side defeated Israel 3-0 at home in the last round, securing their fifth consecutive victory in the qualifiers, scoring at least three goals in four of those matches. This impressive run has made Italy the sixth most prolific team among all current qualifiers. Italy has secured a top-two finish, but overtaking Norway at the top seems nearly impossible.

• At least one opponent failed to score in 6 of Italy's last 8 World Cup qualifiers.
• The team has opened the scoring in 4 of their last 5 matches in this tournament.
• At least one goal has been scored in both halves in 5 of Italy's last 6 World Cup qualifiers.

Predicted lineup for Italy (4-4-2)

Gianluigi Donnarumma – Alessandro Buongiorno, Andrea Cambiaso, Matteo Gabbia, Raoul Bellanova – Riccardo Orsolini, Sandro Tonali, Bryan Cristante, Mattia Zaccagni – Gianluca Scamacca, Giacomo Raspadori.

Midfielder Nicolò Barella is suspended. Forward Moise Kean will miss the squad due to injury. Defender Riccardo Calafiori will not be available for the upcoming match.

Referee

Nikolai Balakin (Ukraine)

Matches – 5 (International matches, 2025/26);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 24;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.8;

Red cards shown – 0;

Average fouls per match – 26;

Penalties – 20%.

Moldova vs. Italy: Match Prediction

Italy, under Gennaro Gattuso, has had a strong run, winning four consecutive matches with a goal difference of 16:5. However, even with this attacking prowess, it might not be enough for Italy to clinch the top spot, as Norway's attack remains formidable. Nevertheless, Italy will continue to push for a better goal difference ahead of their clash with the Scandinavians, posing a significant challenge for Moldova's defense.

Moldova already struggles defensively, having conceded 26 goals, with only San Marino (32) faring worse among all qualifiers. In their three home matches in the current qualifiers, Moldova has conceded 12 goals, with even Estonia scoring three times against them.

Italy needs a victory, which they should comfortably achieve given Moldova's seven consecutive home losses in World Cup qualifiers. My prediction: Italy win and individual total over 2.5 goals