Nottingham Forest are on the verge of relegation – they are only above 18th place thanks to a better goal difference (by four goals). Fulham, in essence, can only compete for a place in the UEFA Conference League, but the question is whether they want to end up in the same situation as the hosts.
Nottingham Forest
This is not only about the club owner's mood, who has been making frequent changes since the very start of the season, but also about their involvement in the UEFA Europa League. The squad’s resources are barely enough for two or three competitions. In the summer they bought Igor Jesus to replace last season’s leading scorer Chris Wood (20 goals). The Brazilian has already scored 12 goals for the team, but only two of them have come in the Premier League. That is one reason why Forest are second from bottom in the league for goals scored (28). It also affected them on Thursday, when they lost 0:1 at home at the City Ground to Midtjylland in the first leg of the Europa League round of 16. Their 22 shots and 1.72 xG did not bring any reward.
Fulham
This factor – playing in midweek – may work in Fulham’s favour. They are not involved in European competitions, and their players last took to the pitch on 8 March. However, that outing left them in a very different mood, as they failed to make use of home advantage and their superiority over Southampton (0:1) in the FA Cup round of 16. At Craven Cottage the hosts again found themselves in an unfavourable situation: 24 shots and 1.41 xG. Southampton, meanwhile, made the most of their five efforts, scoring once from 1.37 xG. That was already the second match for Marco Silva’s side in which they failed to score and the total goals line did not even reach 1.5 goals. Before that they had lost to West Ham United by the same 0:1 scoreline.
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham Prediction
The first meeting between the sides in London (1:0) suggests that, with a tired and rarely scoring Forest and a Fulham side that waste their already limited chances (-2.19 xGDiff, 15th in the league), we should not expect many goals. It is logical to back under 2.5 goals.