Adam Williams presents his prediction for the Aintree 2m4f (Mildmay) Jcb Melling Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5yo+) horse racing event.
L'Eau du Sud produced a standout performance in the Shloer Chase, beating Jonbon by 15 lengths, but has since finished third twice behind Il Etait Temps, first in the Tingle Creek and then in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. With this trip not entirely in his favour, his chances of winning here look limited.
Solness repeated his 2024 success by landing the Rewards Club Chase (Grade 1) on his seasonal debut, but followed that with a disappointing last-place finish in the Dublin Chase at Leopardstown. This is his first run at this venue, and against this level of opposition, a win looks unlikely.
Saint Segal has picked up a couple of handicap wins this season and finished second in both the Desert Orchid Handicap Chase and the Game Spirit Chase. However, he fell early in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out, and this looks a tough assignment.
JPR One impressed when winning the Scottish Champion Chase in late January. Prior to that, he recorded a second and two third-place finishes in handicaps, including the Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 2). He then finished fourth in the Ryanair Chase behind Heart Wood, and once again looks more of a mid-range contender here.
Gidleigh Park has had just two runs this season, both at Ascot. He finished second in the 1965 Chase (Grade 2) before making several errors and being pulled up in the Clarence House Chase (Grade 1). He was runner-up in the Manifesto Novices' Chase (Grade 1) at this meeting last year, but his current form remains a concern.
Grey Dawning began the season with a victory in the Betfair Chase (Grade 1) as favourite. He was also well fancied for the Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) but made a late mistake and finished third. Last time out, he delivered a solid fourth-place finish in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1). This is a slightly easier contest, and he is rightly among the leading contenders.
Heart Wood has won three of his four starts this season, including the Ryanair Chase last time out. His only minor setback was a fourth-place finish in the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase (Grade 1), where he could easily have finished third. In this field, he looks the most appealing option at odds of 11/8 with William Hill.
