Adam Williams presents his prediction for the Cheltenham 2m4½f (New) Ryanair Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) horse racing event.
Heart Wood finished second in this race last year and may struggle to improve on that result this time around. He has won two Grade 3 races this season — the BetVictor Chase and the New Year’s Day Chase — but also finished fourth in the John Durkan Chase (Grade 1) behind Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File.
Banbridge was beaten only a nose by The Jukebox Man in the King George VI Chase at Kempton, with Gaelic Warrior finishing third in that tightly contested finish. Jango Baie was only half a length behind them. The 10-year-old also finished fourth in the Hilly Way Chase, which accounts for his entire campaign this season. He was ninth in this race two years ago, and last year his connections opted for the Gold Cup instead, where he finished last.
Impaire Et Passe has had just one start this season, winning the Red Mills Chase (Grade 2) at Gowran Park when justifying favouritism. This will be his first appearance at Cheltenham since his victory in the Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) here in 2023. He also won the Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) at Aintree last year and could easily perform better than the odds suggest.
Jonbon has never finished worse than second in all 27 starts of his career. This will be his fifth appearance at the Cheltenham Festival, and remarkably all four previous runs here in March ended with second-place finishes — including last year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase behind Marine Nationale. His most recent outing was a victory in the Ascot Chase over 2m5f.
Matata finished third in the Shloer Chase, where Jonbon was second, and won the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase over 2m4½f on 1 January. Two years ago he finished fourth in the Arkle Challenge, though he missed last year’s Festival.
JPR One has had four runs this season, winning only the most recent — the Scottish Champion Chase — while carrying top weight. He finished 12th in last year’s Grand Annual and seventh in the Arkle Challenge two years ago. His chances look even slimmer this time.
Master Chewy, like Matata, represents the Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies stable and also goes off as one of the outsiders. He finished fifth in last year’s Ryanair Chase. This season he was second in both the Old Roan Chase at Aintree and the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton, but the competition here is considerably stronger.
Croke Park has finished third twice this season behind Heart Wood. He has not won since the Christmas meeting in 2024, when he landed the Long Distance Novice Chase (Grade 1) at Leopardstown. His form this season has been fairly modest.
Fact To File has competed three times at the highest level this season. Last time he won the Irish Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1), beating Gaelic Warrior, who had previously finished ahead of him in the John Durkan on his seasonal debut. We can set aside his disappointing sixth in the King George VI Chase, which turned into an extraordinary race. A horse of Gold Cup calibre, he rightly heads the market here and is our selection.
