Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the English Premier League match.
Arsenal's first place is not completely secure, with Manchester City only five points behind them. Brentford, with the Premier League's second top scorer Igor Thiago, appear to be a dangerous opponent.
Arsenal
The gap has narrowed because Arsenal dropped points in another, more high-profile London derby against Chelsea. They failed to make the most of the visitors having a man sent off in the 38th minute. They conceded first, with Chelsea punishing them in the same way (from a corner). Only towards the end of the hour did Mikel Merino, the player on whom the foul for the red card was committed, equalise. Scoring more than once against Arsenal is almost impossible; even Bayern Munich could not manage it (3:1). This season only Sunderland have done it, and even that was at the last moment and on their own pitch (2:2).
Brentford
After the departure of the forward duo Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbeumo, it seemed that Brentford were in for difficult times, but now Igor Thiago is carrying them. The Brazilian forward spent almost all of last season injured (eight matches, zero goals), but this term he has already scored 11 times in 13 Premier League games. Among these was the winning goal last Saturday against Burnley (3:1), in a match where he actually scored twice. Brentford score slightly fewer goals than Arsenal (21 compared to 25), but concede significantly more (20 to 7).
Arsenal vs Brentford Prediction
However sharp Igor Thiago's finishing instincts may be, we do not think he will score more than once, nor the visitors as a whole. This is not Burnley. So we are backing a combination of an Arsenal win and the under 3.5 goals – this has landed in three of their last five meetings. In another case, the score was 3:1.
