Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the UFC 321 fight.
Azat Maksum
Maksum is expected to control the mid-range and stay alert to Raposo’s takedown attempts. He’ll use constant feints and sharp straight punches to keep the American guessing while chopping at his legs with heavy low kicks to disrupt any level changes. If Raposo closes the distance, Maksum will unleash his signature counter hooks and short combinations as he pivots out of danger. Expect him to throw punches even while retreating, using movement to create space and punish his opponent’s entries. His main weapons will be precise crosses through Raposo’s open guard — shots that have proved effective against opponents with weaker defensive discipline.
Mitch Raposo
Raposo will look to bounce in and out of range, using head movement and quick footwork to draw reactions from Maksum before firing back with counter hooks. He’ll try to turn every exchange into an opportunity to shoot for a takedown, especially after catching a low kick. If his initial attempts don’t land cleanly, expect him to chain wrestle — lifting and slamming Maksum, or resetting for a better grip away from the cage. On the mat, Raposo’s plan will be immediate pressure — seeking a rear-naked choke or rapid ground-and-pound to force a stoppage.
Betting odds
Bookmakers lean toward the Kazakh fighter, believing Maksum’s superior technique, reach, and takedown defence will neutralise Raposo’s wrestling. The odds on a Maksum win are 2/9.
The Cage Titans standout has so far struggled to adapt to the level of competition in the UFC and is unlikely to break his losing streak against a stylistically awkward opponent in Azat. Betting on Raposo to win is available at odds of 17/5.
Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo Prediction
Maksum’s defensive awareness and strong balance make him a difficult target for a pure wrestler like Raposo. The American will need to take big risks to close distance, which opens him up to Maksum’s crisp counter-punching. A stoppage for the Kazakh is possible if Raposo overcommits, but the more likely outcome is a composed, technical performance leading to a decision victory. Maksum’s precision, timing, and composure should see him through comfortably.
