Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Championship match.
Burnley have played out goalless draws in three of their last four matches, but their most recent stalemate was particularly frustrating, as they dropped points against an underdog. If they fail to deliver against Oxford United as well, it will be a serious setback.
Burnley
Burnley are slowly drifting away from their goal of securing automatic promotion to the Premier League. A home draw against Leeds United was acceptable, but failing to beat Portsmouth away was a disappointment—despite the fact that Portsmouth have been tough to beat at home this winter. Burnley created almost nothing in attack against the league leaders (0.19 xG, with just four off-target shots). Against Portsmouth, Burnley only asserted real dominance in the final stages of the second half, but their overall xG of 0.78 was still underwhelming—Portsmouth even registered more (1.25 xGA).
Oxford United
Oxford, under new coach Gary Rowett, have been one of the league’s surprise packages. Despite having a squad valued at just £20 million, they are now unbeaten in nine matches. Wins are becoming less frequent, but their steady stream of draws has kept them comfortably in 16th-17th place, maintaining a safe gap from the relegation zone. Their latest result, a (1:1) draw against Bristol City—a side pushing for the top six—showed their resilience.
Burnley vs Oxford United Prediction
Burnley have won just one of their last seven Championship matches by more than a single goal. Given that Oxford have made a habit of frustrating stronger opponents, this game is likely to be a close one. At most, Burnley may edge a narrow victory, but an outright win is far from guaranteed.