Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Paris match.
Alcaraz, refreshed after his Tokyo triumph and new haircut, arrives in Paris aiming for his ninth title of the season. His opponent, Cameron Norrie, has rarely lost heavily to the Spaniard in their previous meetings.
Carlos Alcaraz
The Spaniard claimed his first indoor title of the year in Rotterdam but has not cruised through matches on this surface — in five of nine indoor contests in 2025, he has dropped at least one set. Alcaraz’s aggressive style remains effective, yet Paris brings a tough test: Norrie has taken a set in all three of their previous three-set encounters. Moreover, Alcaraz has failed to cover a -6.5 game handicap in each of his last nine matches.
Cameron Norrie
The Brit is not enjoying a standout year indoors (three wins, two defeats) but has taken a set in every one of those matches, showing resilience and experience. Norrie has won five of his last nine overall, dropping a set in all but two. In Paris, he began confidently by beating Sebastian Baez (6:3, 6:4), producing a strong serving display with 70% first serves in and 67% of points won behind it.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie Prediction
Alcaraz is less dominant indoors than on outdoor hard courts, while Norrie’s consistency and tactical discipline can keep the contest competitive. The Brit should make the top seed work hard and stay within the spread.
