Francisco Cerúndolo leads the head-to-head against Andrey Rublev 4:1 and has already beaten him twice on hard courts, so he will have a chance to take revenge. However, based on current form, Rublev looks like the favourite.
Francisco Cerúndolo
Francisco Cerúndolo has long since established himself in the top 30 and improves on faster courts with each season. Last year he reached the semi-finals at ATP Masters 1000 events in the Indian Wells Open and the Miami Open, defeating Alex de Minaur, Tommy Paul and Casper Ruud. At the Australian Open he got past Zhang Zhizhen (6:3, 7:6, 6:3) and Damir Džumhur (6:3, 6:2, 6:1). However, over a longer stretch he often lacks stability: starting from the 2025 US Open, Cerúndolo lost in the early rounds to Leandro Riedi, Zizou Bergs and Learner Tien. In addition, at hard-court ATP Masters 1000 events he has never gone beyond the third round in seven attempts.
Andrey Rublev
Andrey Rublev comes into this match in excellent shape. He started confidently in Melbourne, beating Matteo Arnaldi (6:4, 6:2, 6:3) and Jaime Faria (6:4, 6:3, 4:6, 7:5). Across these matches he hit 14 aces and posted strong first-serve numbers (70% first serves in and 75% points won behind the first serve). The Russian has added more variety to his game, become more assured on return and more reliable in closing out sets. Since 2021 the Australian Open has been his most consistent Grand Slam: three quarter-finals and 11 wins in 13 matches at the round of 32.
Francisco Cerúndolo vs Andrey Rublev Prediction
Francisco Cerúndolo is a dangerous opponent, but the advantage in class, experience and consistency in major tournaments is on Andrey Rublev’s side. At his current level of play, the Russian should be able to deal with his rival without long tie-breaks.
