Although Magda Linette leads the head-to-head 4:2, bookmakers give her only about a 30% chance of winning. Why is the market so strongly behind Ekaterina Alexandrova?
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Their most recent meeting, less than a year ago at the Miami Open, went to Linette (6:7, 2:6) and was a first-round match. At that time Alexandrova was ranked 18th and Linette 34th. The rankings probably play a role. Now the gap is much wider: Alexandrova is 12th, while Linette is only 50th.
In addition, Alexandrova produced a strong result at the beginning of February, reaching the final of a WTA 500 event at the neighbouring Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open. There she unexpectedly lost to qualifier Sara Bejlek from the Czech Republic (6:7, 1:6).
Magda Linette
After being eliminated in the third round of the Australian Open, Linette has played only one tournament in almost a month. Last week, in the second round of the Qatar TotalEnergies Open, she lost to Mirra Andreeva, the world No. 5 (6:7, 1:6).
Linette is capable of beating top-20 opponents, but not consistently. This season she has defeated only No. 15 Emma Navarro (3:6, 6:3, 6:3) at the same Australian Open.
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Magda Linette Prediction
The risk of an upset in Dubai, Alexandrova's first-round exit in Doha to Jelena Ostapenko (4:6, 2:6), and the head-to-head record make it unwise to back Alexandrova. It is safer to take Linette with a positive game handicap.
