Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Brazilian Série A match.
The Fla-Flu at the Maracanã is a match where the league situation often becomes less important. Flamengo are top of the standings, while Fluminense are in the top eight, but the derby often does not follow the standings. Both sides approach the game with different emotions: the hosts after a goalless draw, and Flamengo after an impressive win.
Fluminense
Fluminense are seventh in the standings, but at home they perform differently: 12 wins in 16 matches, one of the best home runs in the country. With an average of 1.65 goals scored at home and a disciplined defence, the team often control the tempo. In the last five league rounds they have three wins and one draw, and their xG consistently remains above 1.30, but their finishing is poor. Under Luis Zubeldía the structure is clear: compact lines, an emphasis on control and quick transitions down the flanks.
Flamengo
Flamengo, who are top of the league, have an impressive goal difference of 69:21 and 21 wins this season. However, their away numbers are noticeably weaker: only one victory in their last three matches on the road, and their xG is below the usual level, around 1.10-1.20. This Brazilian derby in all competitions consistently brings them back down: in the last five meetings there have been only six goals scored in total, and on three occasions they have failed to score.
Fluminense vs Flamengo Prediction
Flamengo have been stronger over the season, but at this point the Maracanã factor and the style of Fluminense reduce the gap between the sides. The hosts almost never lose at home, and the visitors are much more cautious in the derby than against teams from the lower part of the standings. The away side definitely will not have an easy match. The hosts have won their last six home league games without conceding a goal.
