In the previous round, Everton drew level with Fulham in the standings but did not overtake them. The visitors are less effective in attack, with 26 goals compared with the hosts’ 34. We shall consider whether this difference will affect the outcome of this meeting between two mid-table sides in the Premier League.
Fulham
This means that, with the same goal difference (-1), Fulham also concede more. This was evident in the previous round. The match at Old Trafford turned into a thriller. By the 85th minute everything was heading towards a comfortable home win, but two of their goals in six minutes almost ended Michael Carrick’s winning run. In the 94th minute the visitors lost Benjamin Šeško in the penalty area. Nevertheless, at Craven Cottage the team are far more aggressive. They have scored two goals more than expected there, according to xG models, and eight more goals at home than away.
Everton
Will it be the same this time? Everton often sit deep in defence against clear favourites, but Fulham are perceived more as equals. Will the side drop back again? The previous round’s away match against Brighton & Hove Albion, who are currently even lower in the standings, is a good example. Throughout the first half, David Moyes’ players did not have a single shot on goal, while the opponents produced 1.18 in xGA. They held out until the 73rd minute. After that it did not become easier: the opponents increased the number of attacks, but the visitors were fortunate that very little was on target (only two shots on target in the whole match). They equalised only in the 97th minute, thanks to the goalkeeper parrying a shot back into play and straight to Beto.
Overall, Everton have scored five goals fewer than expected. Away from home, their finishing is closer to expectations (-1.73 in xGDiff), but they create fewer chances (12.73-17.24 in xG, away versus at home). Their results largely depend on goalkeeper Jordan Pickford.
Fulham vs Everton Prediction
With such a team, it is difficult to expect high-scoring matches: five of the last six head-to-head meetings between Fulham and Everton have finished **under 2.5 goals**. This is the outcome we recommend you to back.
