João Fonseca is continuing his rise up the ATP rankings and is gradually turning from a junior sensation into a strong opponent at tour level. He now faces Belgian Raphaël Collignon, who recently won the Pau Challenger but must now adjust from fast indoor courts to the more demanding conditions at the BNP Paribas Open.
João Fonseca
He started the season poorly, losing three of his first four matches. At his last tournament, the Rio Open, he confidently defeated Thiago Monteiro (7:6, 6:1), showing a mature baseline game and a reliable serve, winning 84% of points on his first delivery. He then lost to Ignacio Buse (7:5, 3:6, 4:6), despite winning 73% of points on his first serve. However, against opponents ranked outside the ATP top 50 he is usually dependable: he has eight wins in his last 12 matches on outdoor hard courts. He has faced Collignon once before in the Davis Cup and beat him in three sets (6:3, 6:7, 6:3).
Raphaël Collignon
He arrives at the BNP Paribas Open in good spirits: in February he won the title at the Pau Challenger, where he comfortably beat Benjamin Bonzi in the final (7:6, 6:1). However, the switch from fast indoor courts to outdoor hard courts may be an issue. Since the start of 2025 he has had a negative record on outdoor courts (6:7), and he has suffered three consecutive defeats on them this year.
João Fonseca vs Raphaël Collignon Prediction
At the moment Fonseca looks the more versatile and confident player; his powerful serve and aggressive backhand can quickly unsettle Collignon. The Brazilian is fresher, better adapted to outdoor hard courts and already has experience of beating the Belgian.
