Leeds United and Nottingham Forest secured 16th and 17th places in the standings as far back as seven rounds ago. Only a win for the latter can swap them.
Leeds United
Leeds United can of course win here, which would not be a surprise at all (they are rated higher), but even in that case they will at best catch up with Tottenham Hotspur and Crystal Palace. It is hard to believe they will make up even the seven-goal gap to Crystal Palace. Their heavy 0:4 defeat against Arsenal in the previous round seriously damaged their goal difference. The hosts had been performing almost perfectly for a long time (one defeat in 10 rounds), but then this setback came. Still, we should not immediately regard this side as being in decline: Arsenal are a special team who leave little doubt about their future championship.
Nottingham Forest
If Nottingham Forest win, the same applies to them – they have the same goal difference as Leeds United (-11). Only they have slightly improved it thanks to a four-match unbeaten run. This is especially important given that West Ham United have started to win. And unlike Leeds United, the visitors held Arsenal to a 0:0 draw at home. That happened a couple of weeks earlier. Even the final matches of the main stage of the UEFA Europa League did not disrupt this successful run, and they managed to reach the play-in round.
Leeds United vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
Their positions in the standings show that these teams are of a similar level. Betting on the match outcome or a handicap is either poor value or too unpredictable. It is much clearer that in most cases, with only a few exceptions, the matches of these teams do not turn out to be high-scoring. For Leeds United, four of their six matches in the Premier League in the new year have finished with under 2.5 goals, and for Nottingham Forest the last three have also stayed under this line. We will therefore go for this bet.
