The draw paired Lorient with OGC Nice, so even in the Coupe de France quarter-final the hosts are not considered underdogs, especially as they play at home.
Lorient
In Ligue 1, Lorient sit 10 points and five places above the visitors in the standings. As recently as November, Lorient were in the relegation zone, but by the end of February the squad had climbed to the bottom of the top half after a 3:3 away draw at OGC Nice. In that match they came back from 1:3 down, a scoreline established late in the first hour. The hosts sat deep and played on the counter, making the visitors' 3.24 xG even more surprising, while Lorient needed only 2.22 xG for their three goals.
OGC Nice
Since the start of 2026 they have been playing slightly better, but remain threatened by relegation, sitting six points above the play-off zone. This improvement is largely down to the return of Claude Puel, who knows the club well and arrived just before the New Year. Under him there has been only one heavy defeat – in round 18 of Ligue 1 against Toulouse (1:5). In almost all other matches across competitions the side have lost only by a one-goal margin (twice). However, they continue to struggle for consistency in attack: sometimes they score three, as against Lorient, and sometimes they fail to score at all, as in four of their last seven matches.
Lorient vs OGC Nice Prediction
In direct meetings between Lorient and OGC Nice over the last two years the Over 2.5 goals market has consistently paid out. It is difficult to pick a winner, so backing a high-scoring outcome looks the most reasonable option.
