Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Conference League match.
Mainz 05 and ACF Fiorentina are struggling in their domestic leagues but are unbeaten in the UEFA Europa Conference League. The German side edged out Omonia Nicosia and Zrinjski Mostar, while the Italians swept aside Sigma Olomouc and Rapid Wien. Both teams have yet to concede in the tournament.
Mainz 05
In the Bundesliga, Mainz have won only once in nine rounds and sit in the relegation zone. The defence remains the same as a year ago, and without Jonathan Burkardt the attack wastes xG. The hosts create chances but average one goal per match. In the UEFA Europa Conference League, they won 1:0 against Omonia Nicosia and Zrinjski Mostar, generating 4.81 xG across those two matches. In the Bundesliga, Mainz have conceded 17 goals, and their solidity in Europe is down to the opponents’ weak attacking play. Zrinjski Mostar played with ten men, and Omonia Nicosia produced 0.24 xG.
Fiorentina
In Serie A, Fiorentina have not won in ten rounds and are bottom of the standings. The dismissal of Stefano Pioli is a logical outcome of the worst start in the club’s history. However, in the UEFA Europa Conference League they play with freedom: 2:0 away to Sigma Olomouc, 3:0 against SK Rapid Wien. Cher Ndour, who is kept on the bench in the league, already has 2+1, and David de Gea has kept two clean sheets. The visitors play pragmatic football and across 14 matches in all competitions this season have gone over 3.5 goals only three times.
Mainz 05 vs Fiorentina Prediction
Mainz will battle, but without Jonathan Burkardt and with poor finishing they are unlikely to contain Fiorentina. The departure of Stefano Pioli should lift the Italian club, and Cher Ndour together with Roberto Piccoli can decide it away from home. The visitors should avoid defeat, and the match is likely to feature few goals.
