Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the 2026 World Cup qualifying match.
Norway are racing towards qualification for the World Cup. Before the decisive match against Italy, they need to confirm first place in Group I with a victory over fourth-placed Estonia.
Norway
There is a clear class gap here, and the opposition are unlikely to cope with the pace set by Norway. Any of the 10 most valuable players in the hosts’ squad is worth as much as the entire Estonia team (13 million euros). And what about Erling Haaland alone? Valued at 180 million, the striker has already scored 19 goals for Manchester City in three months this season, and in this World Cup qualification (UEFA) campaign he leads the scoring race with 12 goals. Consequently, the home side have a massive goal difference (+26), which the Italians simply will not cover.
Estonia
Estonia are likely to be statistical bystanders in this match. They currently have seven goals scored, exactly one per game, but with a goal difference of (-10). The first-round match in Tallinn ended in a narrow defeat (0:1), which could be called a surprise. Norway created 2.39 xG, but the issue was that only 3 of 19 away shots hit the target.
Norway vs Estonia Prediction
Even at home Estonia struggled: when they travelled to Italy, instead of 1:3 it finished 0:5. A similar scenario is expected in Oslo. There will not be a repeat of Norway’s demolition of Moldova (11:1), but the margin should still be convincing. We are taking Estonia with a (+4.5) handicap: only once have they allowed the opponents more.
