Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Europa League match.
In the current UEFA Europa League campaign, OGC Nice and Freiburg can reach the latter stages — both squads have the potential, but they do not always look to open up. For example, Freiburg have gone under 2.5 goals in three of the last four matches — the only exception was the trip to Fortuna Düsseldorf (3:1) in the 2. Bundesliga in the Cup.
OGC Nice
OGC Nice have also tried to play from a defensive base in Ligue 1 matches against top opponents. This plan earned points against LOSC Lille (2:0), but away to Paris Saint-Germain (0:1) they did not even get a draw. Across these two matches, the hosts produced a combined 1.48 xG from open play — against Paris the difference in attacking intent was clear (5-28 in shots). In the UEFA Europa League, the French side have not yet picked up a point, although all opponents are top-eight contenders — AS Roma, Fenerbahçe and Celta de Vigo (all — 1:2).
Freiburg
This season Freiburg are no longer in the race for the top four in the Bundesliga, but in the UEFA Europa League they are in the top six with two goals conceded after three rounds. Two weeks ago Freiburg comfortably beat Utrecht (2:0) — a tricky opponent managed only 0.97 xG with two shots on target in 90 minutes. Goalkeeper Noah Atubolu is improving — he has three clean sheets in his last five club appearances.
OGC Nice vs Freiburg Prediction
Since early October, Freiburg have had under 2.5 goals in four of five away matches. OGC Nice are unlikely to open up because they need points, so we recommend the under bet.
