Olympique Lyon go into matchday 22 of Ligue 1 on a run of six league wins and 12 victories in all competitions. They are third in the standings and have not dropped points in the league in 2026. The market expects a high-scoring game, but the numbers suggest the goal expectations for OGC Nice are inflated.
Olympique Lyon
They have won their last eight matches at Groupama Stadium in all competitions. In Ligue 1 they average 2.05 goals per game and have conceded only four times across the last six rounds. In 2026 they have six wins with a goal difference of 14:4. At home the hosts have not lost since the beginning of November, with their only defeat coming against Paris Saint-Germain in a five-goal match. Four of their last six home league games have seen them concede no more than once. The loss of Endrick reduces their attacking depth, but their defensive structure remains stable.
OGC Nice
They are 14th and have conceded 38 goals in 21 rounds; only the bottom side have a worse record. After a 1:5 defeat against Toulouse they have collected five points from three matches, but over that spell they created less than 3.0 xG in total. The 0:0 draw with AS Monaco was their first clean sheet since October. Away from home they average 0.95 goals per game.
Olympique Lyon vs OGC Nice Prediction
The market prices in a high probability of both teams scoring, taking into account the profile of the match and the hosts' winning run. However, the hosts are defensively reliable at home, while the visitors have a weak away attack and low xG figures in recent rounds. With the hosts' current form and the visitors' limited attacking resources, the probability that only one side scores is higher than the odds imply. We prefer Both Teams to Score – No as a value option at the current line.
