Bookmakers give Vitória only around a 10% chance of success, but why? They are above Palmeiras in the standings, even if only the opening round has been played.
Palmeiras
Palmeiras had a poor end to last season both in the CONMEBOL Libertadores and in the Brasileirão, but still finished runners-up in both competitions. Frustrating, but still a very high level. In the first round they ran into fierce resistance from Atlético Mineiro away from home and drew 2:2.
When the hosts play at home, however, everything usually goes smoothly: they have failed to win in only 3 of their last 10 matches at Allianz Parque. In addition, they kept a clean sheet in eight of those games.
Vitória
However, Vitória played the first round at home and beat Remo 2:0, a club that have not appeared in the Série A for more than a decade. At the same time they did not convert all the chances they created (3.12 xG).
In recent months their victories have come either against teams from lower divisions or against Sport Recife (3:1), who have already been relegated.
Palmeiras vs Vitória Prediction
Palmeiras have failed to win at home three times recently because of 0:0 draws. One of those stalemates was precisely against Vitória. On that occasion, the visiting side simply protected their own goal (30% possession and four shots off target).
They are likely to choose a similar tactical approach here, so we will back the visitors with a +1.5 handicap.
