Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Brazilian Série A match.
Palmeiras
At home Palmeiras have 12 wins in 16 matches, with an average of more than three goals scored at Allianz Parque. The hosts consistently create chances thanks to a high line and aggressive wide play. Over the season, the squad have scored 58 goals and conceded only 29, which makes for one of the best attack–defence balances in the league. In the last four rounds they have two wins, and their xG has stayed around 1.70-2.10 in almost every match. Even in the defeat to Santos, they largely controlled the game.
Vitória
Vitória’s away record is disastrous: only one win in 18 away matches and 20 goals conceded in their last six trips. The visitors often fail positionally, allowing opponents to carry the ball into the penalty area, which explains the 47 goals conceded. Their attack is inconsistent: in the last five rounds they have scored only three times, mostly against teams from the lower part of the standings. At Palmeiras’ home ground such opportunities are usually not allowed.
Palmeiras vs Vitória Prediction
Palmeiras are too strong at home for us to consider a defeat for the hosts. However, the odds on a simple home win are not attractive enough, whereas a combined bet logically links their dominance with the overall scoring level. In 9 of the last 11 head-to-head meetings with the hosts, they have avoided defeat and scored more than 1.5 goals.
