Qarabağ's successful campaign in the UEFA Champions League league phase depended largely on their home results. In January the Azerbaijani champions defeated Eintracht Frankfurt in a high-scoring match (3:2), and they should have enough attacking resources to score in this game against an injury-depleted Newcastle United.
Qarabağ
Despite the heavy 0:6 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield, they still reached the top 24 of the league phase by a narrow margin, with as many as five teams scoring fewer goals than them (13 goals in eight matches). At home they collected seven points from a possible 12, scoring at least two goals in every match. In November they posted 1.63 xG in the 2:2 draw against Chelsea, and three weeks ago against Eintracht Frankfurt in Baku they produced 1.78 xG.
Newcastle United
Since the end of the UEFA Champions League league phase, the Magpies have developed serious problems in defence. They have conceded a total of 12 goals across their last five matches; in this stretch the side played only one game against a non-top Premier League club, losing that home fixture to Brentford (2:3). They have also lost their captain and holding midfielder Bruno Guimarães through injury, which is likely to lead to even more mistakes at the back.
Qarabağ vs Newcastle United Prediction
Since the defeat to Liverpool, they have scored at least one goal in four consecutive domestic matches. The UEFA Champions League play-offs are their main objective for the remainder of the season, and it will be difficult for them to get past the visitors without a strong performance in this home leg.
