The 19th round of the German championship opens with a fierce derby. St. Pauli, after two defeats in 2026, have dropped to last place in the standings, while Hamburger are four points clear of 16th place, which leads to the relegation play-offs – an intense battle for victory is expected.
St. Pauli
St. Pauli have been extremely unstable in defence in both January matches. The game against RB Leipzig was postponed because of bad weather, and the defeats to Wolfsburg (1:2) and Borussia Dortmund (2:3) came with a large number of chances at their goal. In 2026, the team under Alexander Blessin have generated only 1.74 xG – the worst figure in the Bundesliga. At home, they have collected only seven points from a possible 21; only Mainz 05 (6) have a worse home record.
Hamburger
Hamburger are winless in four league matches in a row, but before this poor run they had built a comfortable cushion over the relegation zone. They have conceded only 27 goals – outside the top six this is the best record together with Union Berlin. Last weekend Merlin Polzin set his team up well to shut down an in-form Borussia Mönchengladbach (0:0) – as a newly promoted Bundesliga side, the visitors know how to play for a result, even if that means sacrificing attacking ambition.
St. Pauli vs Hamburger Prediction
In August St. Pauli beat Hamburger away (2:0), but at that time the hosts were in their best form of the season. We expect the side under Alexander Blessin to take risks – the support of the fans and the derby tension will add emotion, and Hamburger can exploit this on the counter-attack.
