Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the UFC 321 fight.
Tom Aspinall
Tom is expected to start cautiously, gauging the distance and avoiding Gane’s sharp counters. Aspinall will mix in low kicks and a stiff jab early on before exploding with his trademark one-two combination — a long left straight followed by a heavy right hook. He’ll look to slip away from Gane’s body and leg kicks, staying in mid-range where he can land crisp boxing combinations. If the Frenchman steps in too close, Aspinall will shoot for a takedown and immediately work for ground-and-pound. Once on the mat, he’ll aim to stretch Gane out and keep top control, hoping the challenger can’t set up a heel hook or scramble to his feet. Should Gane stand, Aspinall will likely drag him down again and continue the assault from top position.
Ciryl Gane
Gane will rely on his elite footwork and movement, constantly changing angles to stay off Aspinall’s centre line. Expect him to use feints, fast entries, and multi-level kicks to the legs and body. In close quarters, Gane will try to tie Aspinall up in the clinch to slow the tempo, then break away with short counters before circling out. His front kicks to the midsection and quick cross counters remain his most dangerous weapons. The Frenchman will also use head movement and dips to confuse Aspinall, looking for single, clean shots that can swing momentum.
Betting odds
Bookmakers see Aspinall as the clear favourite, with odds around 1/4, reflecting his well-rounded mix of elite boxing and grappling.
Gane, priced at 14/5, remains a live underdog thanks to his speed, agility, and striking variety.
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane Prediction
It's unlikely Aspinall manages to knock Gane out within the first minute or two. In fact, with his own speed and sharp reflexes, the Frenchman is more than capable of securing a finish himself. We also shouldn't rule out Tom quickly switching to a grappling game plan to pursue a submission on the ground. Expect an early finish. These are two fast, accurate heavyweights who can end a fight with a single punch. The champion has the overall edge due to his wrestling, but the best value lies with under 1.5 rounds.
