Odds on the Next Premier League Manager to Be Sacked: A Closer Look at the Favorites
The worst team in Premier League history — Southampton — has already sacked their manager. But they might not be the last. Other candidates are lining up for the exit, including the head coach of fellow strugglers Leicester, Ruud van Nistelrooy, and Ange Postecoglou, who may need nothing short of a Europa League title to save his job.
Who Will Be the Next Manager to Leave?
What are the bookmakers predicting? And where should your money go? We break it all down in our full preview.
Next Manager to Be Sacked Odds
This season, the bookmakers have been remarkably accurate with their calls on managerial changes. Thomas Tuchel, who led the odds for the England job, ended up getting it. And as predicted, Erik ten Hag didn’t survive the season at Manchester United.
Top 5 Contenders to be Fired
Van Nistelrooy & Postecoglou: One Step from the Brink
Leicester have lost 11 of their last 12 matches, collecting just a single point. The arrival of Ruud van Nistelrooy has done little to steady the ship. And now, with club legend Jamie Vardy announcing his departure amid looming relegation, will the board really stick with an expensive head coach?
The Dutchman himself doesn’t seem too happy either — with the players or the ownership.
According to The Sun, Van Nistelrooy was shocked to be granted just one new signing upon his arrival. Fans are furious and have begun chanting from the stands:
And when the board goes looking for a scapegoat, who do you think will be first in line?
Van Nistelrooy is under contract until June 2027, but details of any break clause remain undisclosed. Given the costly departure of Steve Cooper earlier this season, it’s safe to assume Leicester’s legal team built in a relegation-triggered termination clause this time around.
And if any club is bold (or desperate) enough to sack their manager just weeks before the season ends, it’s Leicester. In 2022–23, the Foxes sacked Brendan Rodgers in early April — with eight games still to play.
Despite Tottenham’s humiliating 1–5 loss to Liverpool at Anfield and a dismal 16th-place standing, Ange Postecoglou’s odds of being sacked have drifted.
Why? It’s simple: Spurs are in no danger of relegation. And paying £12 million in severance to fire the Australian? That’s not exactly Daniel Levy’s style.
There’s also the small matter of a potential Europa League triumph — Tottenham are still the bookies’ favourites to win the competition. Firing the man who delivered the club’s first trophy in 17 years? Unlikely. In fact, Postecoglou looks poised to lead them to the final and possibly secure Champions League football next season.
But if that plan collapses, Spurs' board might be forced to act. After all, Mourinho, Conte, and Pochettino were all sacked despite big payouts.
Maresca & Amorim: Still in the Trust Zone
Two ambitious young coaches took over troubled giants — and are still on relatively safe ground.
Enzo Maresca was never expected to work miracles. The target? Simply a top 5 finish and Champions League qualification. With fierce competition from Forest, Man City, Newcastle, Villa, and Chelsea, the battle will go down to the wire. Only a madman would sack a manager in this situation.
Chelsea are also heavily favoured to win the UEFA Conference League, a trophy that would mark clear progress over last year’s dismal campaign — and tick the “minimum objective” box.
At Manchester United, the board has effectively written off the Premier League. They won’t go down, and their main aim — like Spurs — is to win the Europa League. United are the second favourites, but face a tricky semifinal tie against Athletic Bilbao.
Even if he doesn’t win silverware, Rúben Amorim appears safe — for now. co-owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe recently said he expects the Portuguese manager to stay:
Amorim himself admitted the pressure is on — he needs to build a competitive team by Christmas, or he’s out. But a sacking this season looks off the table.
Guardiola? Only If the Sky Falls
Pep Guardiola’s name still appears in some sacking markets — probably out of habit. But let’s be honest: unless the Premier League wins its legal battle against City and the club gets relegated, Pep isn’t going anywhere. And that court case won’t be resolved this season. Bookmark it.
City are on course for a top-four finish and still in the FA Cup. For what’s been the club’s most difficult campaign in years, that’s more than enough.
Or… No One at All?
Here’s a thought: maybe nobody goes. It’s rare for relegated teams to sack their managers with just 5–7 games left — most wait until summer. Last season, none of the clubs who went down changed managers in the final stretch. So even Van Nistelrooy might survive.
PSG
Inter Milan
