Odds on the Next Premier League Manager to Be Sacked: A Closer Look at the Favorites

Who’s Next After Ten Hag?

The patience of Manchester United's bosses has finally run out, and the top candidate for the exit has been dismissed at last. Since the start of the season, the lineup of potential “targets” has been significantly reshuffled. For instance, Eddie Howe has strengthened his position at Newcastle, much to the disappointment of José Mourinho, who was rumored to be interested in a return to England.

So, who has struggled through the first third of the season, and for whom could every game now be the last? We’ll cover this in our review and offer the most intriguing betting options.

Who Will Be the First to Be Fired?

Russel Martin

5/4

Julen Lopetegui

7/5

Oliver Glasner

6/1

Russel Martin (Southampton)

A newly promoted team wearing red and white stripes is panicking after a poor start to the season. With nine losses in 11 games, Southampton may already be considering a replacement.

Excluding the long-serving Ralph Hasenhüttl, the last four permanent managers of the Saints stayed in the position for an average of 184.5 days. Martin has already been in charge three times longer than that.

The jump to the Premier League may be proving too challenging for the former MK Dons and Swansea manager. Many expected him to be dismissed right after the international break. However, according to journalists from Football Insider, the management still trusts Martin for now, placing more blame for the poor results on the players.

Still, the same insiders report that if the club does decide to part ways with the manager, even a substantial £12 million termination fee won’t prevent them from doing so. Over the past three years, clubs promoted from the Championship have consistently dismissed their managers within the first season.

Dismissed Managers of Promoted Teams

It's hard to imagine what Martin could come up with to deliver results in such a short time. In his next five matches, he’ll face four top clubs—Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, and Aston Villa—as well as the current 6th-place team in the league, Brighton & Hove Albion.

Julen Lopetegui (West Ham)

In the summer, the Spaniard replaced David Moyes, but he hasn’t managed to "refresh" the team. The Hammers are hovering just a few places above the relegation zone, with their last drop to the Championship happening 14 years ago.

West Ham is currently one of the six lowest-scoring teams this season. Former West Ham manager Sam Allardyce has commented that many players are struggling to connect with Lopetegui. Insiders are already confidently linking Ruud van Nistelrooy with the team.

Lopetegui himself is likely puzzled over what went wrong, as he has improved nearly all the metrics the management set for him.

Comparative Statistics: Lopetegui vs. Moyes

It seems this is precisely why he's still in charge. But you never know when the unpredictable Spaniard might suddenly disappear. Lopetegui has a history of unexpected exits, as shown when he left Wolves right before the start of last season and stepped down as Spain's manager just ahead of the 2018 World Cup.

Oliver Glasner (Crystal Palace)

Glasner made a strong impact after replacing Roy Hodgson last season, guiding Crystal Palace to a 10th-place finish with six wins in their final seven games. This season, however, has been more challenging, with the Austrian coming under criticism as Palace have managed just one win in their first 11 league matches.

However, journalist David Ornstein, who is close to the club, insists that the management continues to trust their manager.

However, the recent run of matches has been deeply disappointing. We compared it to the same stretch of games from two other former Crystal Palace managers who were sacked. Heads have rolled for even more respectable results.

Last 10 Matches Before Being Sacked by Crystal Palace

 Gary O'Neil (Wolverhampton)

Wolves are in the basement of the table, suffering a catastrophe in the "goals conceded" column, where they have the worst record in the league. Over the past three seasons, the club has changed managers on average every year.

With just a few points separating them from the relegation zone and having secured their first win in a while, discussions about a managerial change have quieted. However, not long ago, specific names were even being mentioned: David Moyes and former Chelsea manager Graham Potter.

The bottom line is that the management is looking for an experienced coach, but O'Neil has only a couple of seasons under his belt at Bournemouth. Since the 2018-19 season, Wolves have never been relegated to the lower leagues. Only once during their Premier League tenure have they dropped to 20th place in the table—during the 2022-23 season, which ultimately cost Bruno Lage his job.

Gary O'Neil to Leave Next

Bonus £40

Bet

6/1

Ange Postecoglou (Tottenham)

Tottenham is the highest-scoring team in the Premier League, but that seems to be where the good news ends. Tenth place, which doesn't even secure a spot in the Conference League.

Postecoglou enjoyed a strong start to his debut season with Spurs in 2023/24, going unbeaten in his first 10 Premier League games and topping the table by October. However, a series of poor performances followed. The team missed out on the Champions League, and it seems the only thing keeping the Australian coach in his job is relatively successful performances in the Europa League, where Tottenham have almost secured a spot in the knockout stages.

Over the past 2-3 months, the odds on Postecoglou's dismissal have fluctuated due to the team's inconsistent form. Currently, bookmakers consider his chances of being sacked relatively low compared to the leading four candidates. And this season, bookmakers have been nearly spot-on when it comes to managerial changes. The top contender for the England manager's job, Thomas Tuchel, eventually got the role, and Ten Hag, as predicted, didn't last the season at Manchester United.

Ange Postecoglou to Leave Next

Bonus £40

Bet

16/1

Arteta’s Job Secured, Pep’s Closer to Leaving than Staying"

As the head coach of Arsenal, Mikel Arteta has a clear vision: he wants to win the Premier League. He hopes to accomplish it as head coach because it is a regrettable accomplishment he was unable to have as an Arsenal player and captain. He came agonizingly close to doing so two last seasons, but it will only fuel his desire to defeat Man City and win the title the following year. Arsenal naturally wanted to secure his long-term future before the 2024–2025 season started, and triumphed. By doing this, you can make sure that everyone is in agreement and reduce any worries about Arteta's future at the conclusion of the next season.

And what about Pep? With his contract at the Etihad set to expire at the end of the current campaign, Guardiola's future at the club is currently shrouded in uncertainty. Although there have been hints that the Catalan could stay in Manchester past his ninth season, Guardiola stated in May that he is "closer to leaving than staying."

Josep Guardiola to Leave Next

Bonus £40

Bet

40/1