Polarization, Volatility, and Cycles: Betting Trends in Women’s Sports

Are There Differences Compared to Betting on Men’s Competitions?

Is there any corner of the sports world that hasn’t been analyzed to the molecular level by bookmakers? Surprisingly, even in this age of feminism, entire categories of women’s sports are teeming with value bets. Of course, women’s football isn’t the equivalent of Bitcoin in 2009, but let’s not forget that in 2015, crypto trading still had room for significant profit. Many women’s sports today are at a similar stage of growth in terms of popularity.

Who Will Win French Open 2025?

Świątek

11/20

Sabalenka

5/1

Gauff

15/2

Over the past five years, the share of bets on women’s sports in the UK has grown by 35%. The 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup in Australia and New Zealand attracted a record-breaking volume of bets — 65% more than the 2019 tournament. Yet, women’s sports (particularly football) remain relatively unexplored by bookmakers. For instance, in the WSL, you’ll often find inflated odds on individual totals for Arsenal matches against underdogs.

Modern women’s sports are defined by two key factors. We’ll dive into these by examining the most popular and emerging women’s sport.

Volatility in Women’s Tennis

Women’s sports are thrilling — and no, we’re not talking about lingerie football, though it’s certainly a spectacle. Instead, we’re referring to the role of emotions and, as a result, the element of unpredictability.

In tennis, the most popular women’s sport, breaks of serve occur far more often than in men’s matches. And no, it’s not just about the strength of the serve.

Forget the consistent serve-holding strategies that yield small but steady returns in men’s tennis. For women, this aspect of the game operates completely differently. Bets on there not being two consecutive breaks often have odds of 2/1 because such sequences are far from uncommon.

Backing the favorite at low odds in women’s tennis is typically not a good strategy. Comebacks, even from seemingly hopeless positions, occur frequently. Any bet at odds lower than 1/1 is best approached cautiously; over time, such bets are rarely profitable.

When it comes to outrights, the picture can be more nuanced, but women’s tournaments clearly display less predictability. For example, at Wimbledon, the top five favorites in the women’s draw typically have odds at least 1.5 times higher than their male counterparts.

Sabalenka

11/4

Gauff

11/2

Elena Rybakina

13/2

Class Polarization in Football

Women’s sports are developing unevenly, leading to significant gaps between competitors in leagues still catching up to their male counterparts in terms of popularity. In this season’s WSL, for example, Chelsea demolished Crystal Palace 7:0, with a total goals market of over 3.5 at odds of 11/10.

Favorites usually win — and they do so emphatically, often exceeding substantial handicaps. In the fifth round, Chelsea thrashed Tottenham 5:2, comfortably beating a handicap of -2 goals at 4/1 odds.

Chelsea, in particular, have been dominant this season, dropping only two points across 10 matches. The challenge for bettors lies in the odds: victories for clear favorites rarely exceed 2/5. However, even under such circumstances, betting £5 on Chelsea to win every game this season would have netted a profit of £13.

In the outrights market, such dominance translates to enormous odds for any contenders outside Manchester City.

Top 5 Contenders for the WSL Title:

A Provocative Afterword

In individual women’s sports, upsets occur approximately 33% more often than in team sports. Some tipsters attribute this not just to emotional swings but also to pure physiology. A striking example comes from Roland Garros a few years ago when China’s Zheng Qinwen claimed she lost to Iga Świątek due to menstrual cramps. After a strong first set, she seemed to hit a wall and was swept aside.

Some bettors even claim to closely monitor athletes' cycles, using this information to shape their predictions. However, this strategy is risky, given the approximate and private nature of such data.

A more reliable approach? Stick to the basics:

• Team sports: Hunt for inflated individual totals for favorites in mismatched games.

• Individual sports: Bet on breaks and total sets in evenly matched contests, like in tennis.