The Collapse of Sinn Féin: Odds on Early Elections in Ireland

In late November, Ireland will hold early general elections, though the exact date has not yet been announced. Why did the ruling coalition decide not to wait until their term ends in March? And who is now the main favourite? We’ll cover everything in our overview and suggest the best bets on the candidates.

Sinn Fein to Win General Elections

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9/2

Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Simon Harris talks about the new tax code, but everyone knows the real reason for the early election call. The largest opposition party, Sinn Féin, performed unexpectedly poorly in the European and council elections. On top of that, there have been sexual scandals and internal party conflicts. While their competitors are still regrouping, the ruling coalition is aiming to strengthen its own position.

Which Party Will Win the Majority of Seats?

Real chances of victory lie with three parties. Let’s take a closer look at them.

Sinn Féin

The former political wing of the IRA distanced itself from terrorist activities long ago and no longer frightens voters with radicalism. On the contrary, in the previous parliamentary elections, they secured 34 seats in the Dáil Éireann (Lower House) — 2 more than the longtime leaders, Fine Gael.

Sinn Féin in figures and faces

Pros

Sinn Féin gained popularity amid protest sentiments following the economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Promises of social justice and a well-thought-out program for building new, affordable housing have earned them many supporters.

Left-wing parties have generally strengthened their position in Europe. This year, they won all the elections held: Labour in the United Kingdom, the Left Coalition in France. It’s definitely a trend.

Cons

However, Sinn Féin's ratings at one point almost halved. With numbers below 20 percent support, no party in the 21st century has won elections in Ireland.

There are several reasons for the drop in popularity: an error in election strategy—too few candidates were fielded in 2020, while too many were put forward in the local and European elections this summer. Secondly, big business remains wary of their plans to raise taxes. And finally, there were sex scandals involving a former press officer and the exit of another party figure: one admitted to child sex offences, and the other was allegedly caught sending inappropriate text messages to a 17-year-old.

Other Contenders

Fianna Fáil

Moderate conservatives, Fianna Fáil have alternated in ruling Ireland for over 100 years. They are centrists who tend to lean to the right, which isn’t the most advantageous position in Europe’s current political spectrum. Only in Austria over the past 20–30 years has such an agenda led to victory for the Freedom Party. Even then, they lacked the power to form a government.

Fianna Fáil in figures and faces

Before the 2008 crisis, Fianna Fáil had ratings between 35-40 percent, but then they plummeted. It was the long-time leaders in Parliament who were blamed for the economic collapse. Gradually, things began to improve, but the former numbers are nowhere in sight. Some voters cannot forgive them for their ambiguous position on the abortion ban law. Others are concerned about their tough rhetoric regarding migrants.

In any case, after 2020, Fianna Fáil was forced for the first time in its history to enter a coalition with its arch-rivals, Fine Gael, in order to stay in government. Yes, they secured 35 deputies, meaning they formally won. However, the last time the party won two elections in a row was 17 years ago. With their current ratings, they could very well remain in third place.

They have concentrated all their efforts on child benefit legislation. However, this has not increased their popularity, as evidenced by the fact that several long-standing and respected party members will run as independent candidates in the upcoming elections, such as county councillor Michael Sheehan.

Fine Gael

Liberal conservatives have occupied a very convenient position in the current circumstances—at the centre. They do not go overboard in their statements about migrants and do not scare businesses with taxes. Overall, they are preparing to regain power. Since 2011, they have only failed to win general elections once.

Fine Gael in figures and faces

This statement comes from Enterprise Minister and Fine Gael member Peter Burke. This is who the party is banking on. Around 300,000 people are employed in retail in Ireland, which is about 15 percent of the total workforce in the country. It is these individuals who will provide Fine Gael with a few extra percentage points of support. However, judging by the ratings, they are already expected to win. In the last three general elections, a victory required surpassing the 23 percent barrier.

Not once in the last five general elections have bookmakers been wrong about the main favourite. Typically, they choose the ruling party. The fact that they have this time broken tradition and shifted their focus to Fine Gael only further supports their incredibly strong position.

Sinn Féin simply does not have time for proper preparation. Premier Harris has organised everything to be as convenient as possible for his Fine Gael party. In recent history, early elections have been their strong suit. In 2011, they took the lead in a similar manner, pulling the chair out from under Fianna Fáil. Now it’s Sinn Féin's turn.

Fine Gael to Win General Elections

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Bet

3/5