UEFA Conference League 24/25: Favourites, Predictions, and Betting Odds
The group stage of the Europa Conference League kicks off on October 2, with the final set to take place on May 28, 2025, in Wrocław, Poland. Under the new rules, last year's champions, Olympiacos, will not be able to defend their title, as teams relegated from the Europa League no longer drop into the Conference League. Even if they were to compete, their chances of repeating last year’s success would be slim, especially with Chelsea entering the competition as the clear and undisputed favourites. In this article, we'll delve into the main contenders for the title and offer some interesting betting options.
Who will win the Europa Conference League 24/25?
It’s quite amusing that, aside from the three teams mentioned above, bookmakers don’t seem to take anyone else seriously. The odds for the next three or four contenders are roughly the same, but they’re three times higher than, for example, Fiorentina’s. That said, don’t rush to lament the lack of excitement. Just last year, Olympiacos had odds as high as 50/1, and Aston Villa, with odds ten times lower, didn’t even make it to the final (guess who knocked them out?).
Top 5 favourites to win UEFA Conference League 24/25
Chelsea
Chelsea return to European football after the nightmare of two seasons ago and a 12th place finish in the Premier League. Manchester United kept them out of the Europa League by winning the FA Cup last season. That's how this famous giant ended up in the third-tier European competition, alongside teams like Rapid and Petrocub.
Fans may have some concerns about squad rotation. Enzo Maresca has already indicated that he will rest several key players: Wesley Fofana, Ben Chilwell, Romeo Lavia, and their star player, Cole Palmer. If they do feature, it will only be after the group stage. Fortunately, there are adequate replacements. There are only two long-term injuries to worry about: Omari Kellyman and Reece James.
Still, there’s little doubt that Chelsea will make it to the knockout stages. Two of their opponents, Heidenheim and Noah, are making their European debuts and are unlikely to challenge Maresca's team. Shamrock Rovers and Astana, whose greatest achievements are reaching the group stages of the Europa League and Champions League over a decade ago, also don’t pose much of a threat. This leaves Gent and Panathinaikos, but even in the worst-case scenario, losing six points to them wouldn’t prevent Chelsea from advancing directly to the round of 16. However, it’s the presence of these two teams that has increased the odds of Chelsea winning the group stage.
In European competitions, Chelsea tend to baffle bookmakers with their split personality. Their last two Champions League titles came when they were massive underdogs, with starting odds of around 20/1.
However, in the lower-tier Europa League, both in 2013 and 2019, their odds hovered around 6/1. In other words, Chelsea knows how to perform as favourites, without suffering from the "Tottenham complex." Moreover, since 2012, whenever Chelsea reaches a final, they go on to win it. So, if you believe in Chelsea, it’s better to bet on them winning rather than playing it safe with a top-2 finish.
Chelsea have started the season on fire, with their only Premier League loss coming in the first round. They were unlucky, having to open the season against Manchester City. Since then, they’ve drawn just once, with goals coming in droves: an average of 2.5 per game. Chelsea are currently the top-scoring team in the Premier League, even outscoring City and Liverpool. Although Cole Palmer, the league's second-highest scorer, won’t be available for the Conference League, Nicolas Jackson, who has scored four goals, will be in action. Judging by the odds, bookmakers are rightly expecting Chelsea to score more than two goals in their upcoming match against Gent.
Real Betis
The not-so-successful cup fighters find themselves second on the list of favourites. However, if the Spaniards do win, it will likely be against tradition. In the past six seasons, they have not made it past the Round of 16 in European competitions. Yet, they have shaken things up in the group stages, twice finishing in first place, ahead of notable teams like Roma and Milan.
This fact, combined with a favourable draw, has actually lowered their odds of winning the League Stage compared to winning the final — the only team among the top five favourites for which this is the case. Their main threats are Copenhagen and Legia, but the former will be a home match, while the latter are having a poor season, sitting mid-table in the Polish league and enduring a three-game winless streak.
Los Beticos are also struggling slightly in La Liga, sitting in 11th place. They are averaging one goal per game and are in search of balance: in goals scored and conceded, in wins and losses, and even their largest win and defeat are mirror images: 2-0 and 0-2. However, an interesting trend emerges: Manuel Pellegrini's side tends to score in the first 15 minutes of the first half (and even that’s rare). If they don’t manage to score early, they prefer to bide their time and wait for their moment in the second half. This scenario is likely to play out in their first away match against Legia. If Betis win the match (which is quite likely), it will happen in the second half.
Fiorentina
This year, the team is celebrating the 10th anniversary of one of its major European achievements — reaching the semi-finals of the Europa League, where they were knocked out by Sevilla. Since then, they have reached the knockout stages of European competitions several times. In fact, in the past two seasons, they made it to the final of the Conference League, losing the decisive matches to West Ham and Olympiacos. In terms of experience in the later stages of the playoffs, The Violets seem like a more solid option than even Betis.
This season, Fiorentina currently sits mid-table in Serie A, ahead of their main competitors for European spots — Atalanta and Bologna. They recently secured a hard-fought win over Lazio. More importantly, Raffaele Palladino’s team rarely loses. At home, they haven't been defeated since April. However, their attack is struggling. Scoring just over a goal per game on average, Fiorentina seems to be conserving their resources. Their biggest win of the season is 2-1. We wouldn’t be surprised if, even in the upcoming game against underdogs The New Saints, the home side tries to secure a narrow win.
The team made some solid signings in the offseason: Marin Pongračić from Lecce, Moise Kean from Juventus, and Amir Richardson from Reims, with a combined cost of €37 million. With a relatively deep bench, Fiorentina is likely to improve as the season progresses. They were somewhat unlucky with the draw: LASK, Vitória Guimarães, and St. Gallen are all within the top 20 favourites. However, the team should comfortably make it to the top eight.
KAA Gent
The Belgians, who won their domestic championship for the first time less than 10 years ago, are developing at a pace comparable to Austrian teams. In the 2015/2016 season, they made a sensational run to the Champions League knockout stage, and the following year, they eliminated Tottenham in the Europa League Round of 32. Over the last two seasons in the Conference League, they have not been knocked out earlier than the Round of 16.
Realistically, Gent’s chances of winning — either at the League Stage or the final — cannot be taken seriously. This is largely due to the tough competition they face early on. In addition to Chelsea, there are teams like Molde (who have similar odds of 16/1 to win the League Stage) and Lugano, whose chances are currently higher than even Legia’s. However, at least twice in the last five years, Gent have stunned bookmakers, forcing them to slash their odds from 25/1 to 10/1 by the Round of 16.
Moreover, Gent can hope their strong opponents underestimate their attacking potential. This season, they have been scoring prolifically both at home and away. In fact, they once even netted four goals on the road. They attack consistently throughout the match. There is no period in the game where the Belgians fail to score this season. In short, Gent should be able to score at least once in their upcoming away match against Chelsea.
Panathinaikos
The main European achievements of one of Greece's most decorated clubs remain rooted in the 1970s. In the last 10 years, the Greeks have established themselves in the group stage. However, last year’s grand success of Olympiacos has undoubtedly instilled confidence in all their compatriots.
Having spent over 19 million euros on transfers (6 million of which went for the 22-year-old Uruguayan Facundo Pellistri from Manchester United), the team is clearly focused on success in European competitions. They eliminated the formidable French side Lens (2-0) to reach the League Stage. However, in the domestic league, their performance has been rather mediocre: two wins in five matches and a less-than-prestigious position in the top ten.
Coach Diego Alonso is betting on newcomer Tete from Galatasaray, who has already made several contributions this season. The rest of the attacking players are still warming up, averaging one goal per game. The first match in the League Stage will serve as a litmus test: what are the Greeks willing to prioritise? If they secure a confident away victory against Borac Banja Luka, it will indicate that the Conference League is a priority. Conversely, if they draw or, worse, lose, it suggests they are not ready to juggle both the league and European competitions. But did they not overcome Lens for this?
UEFA Conference League new format
This is now the fourth season of the Europa Conference League, and it marks the debut of the new format (and its shortened name). The most significant shift comes in the group stage, where it transitions to a 36-team league. Instead of traditional groups, each team plays six matches against different opponents—three home and three away.
At the conclusion of this phase, the top eight teams automatically qualify for the round of 16, while teams placed between 9th and 24th will enter the knockout play-offs. The winners of those play-offs will then progress to the round of 16, after which the competition follows the familiar knockout format all the way to the final.
