Ballon d'Or Winner Odds: Who will win the award in 2025?

While the location and date of the 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony remain unknown—typically announced in the summer—the initial betting odds have already surfaced. Though these figures are likely to fluctuate throughout the year, there is already value to be found in some dark-horse candidates who have yet to hit top form.

Who will win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?

Salah

27/20

Mbappé

5/2

Viníc Jr

10/1

The battle is expected to centre around three leading contenders, with Mohamed Salah currently emerging as the favorite. The Egyptian is enjoying a sensational 2024/25 campaign, breaking records and spearheading Liverpool’s push for both the Premier League and Champions League titles. Given that the award is handed out based on performances across the season—from August to August, including international tournaments—it’s easy to see why bookmakers are backing Salah. The prospects of his closest rivals will largely depend on their influence during the final stretch of La Liga and the Champions League knockout rounds. So far, neither has been as dominant as expected.

Favorites and Betting Odds for the 2025 Ballon d’Or

With the season entering its decisive phase, overtaking Salah will be a monumental challenge. The Madrid duo, Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Jr., still have the opportunity to shake up the race in Europe’s elite competition. To do so, they will need to navigate past Bayer Leverkusen or Atlético Madrid (depending on the draw), followed by a potential clash against either Inter Milan or Arsenal. A deep run could pit them against an English powerhouse in the semi-finals—perhaps denying Salah another major honour.

Top Contenders for the 2025 Ballon d’Or

A major factor in this year’s race is the revamped FIFA Club World Cup, set to be held in its new format for the first time this summer. The tournament’s outcome will inevitably influence voting, and crucially, Real Madrid will participate while Liverpool will not.

Salah: The Front-Runner

Liverpool’s unexpected FA Cup elimination by Plymouth Argyle (0:1) was a shock, but their domestic and European form remains intact. They lead the Premier League by seven points ahead of Arsenal, while their path in the Champions League and EFL Cup remains strong. While not a traditional treble, there is still a realistic chance of lifting three trophies—an achievement largely driven by Salah’s brilliance:

• 23 goals and 14 assists in 25 Premier League matches

• 3+4 in seven Champions League matches

• 2+1 in four EFL Cup matches

• 2 goals in three matched for the national team

Luis Díaz, Liverpool’s second-highest Premier League scorer this season, has just nine goals—further highlighting Salah’s importance.  

Mohamed Salah to win the Ballon d'Or

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27/20

Mbappé: Yet to Convince

Mbappé’s numbers are solid—17 goals and 2 assists in 22 La Liga matches, plus 7 goals and 1 assist in the Champions League. However, his statistics are not quite at Ballon d’Or-winning levels. Remarkably, even the ageing Robert Lewandowski has outscored him across both competitions. Furthermore, many of Mbappé’s contributions have lacked the decisive, match-winning impact expected of a Ballon d’Or contender. 

He found the net against Osasuna and Atlético Madrid, yet both matches ended 1:1. He struck early against Barcelona, only for his side to suffer a humiliating 5:2 defeat. While he dismantled Manchester City, the Premier League champions are far from their imperious best this season. 

Ultimately, the Ballon d’Or isn’t just about individual brilliance – it’s about contributing to team success. You’ve got to be driving your team to victory, not just racking up numbers against underdogs. Mbappé’s real test will come in the Champions League knockout rounds and La Liga’s title run-in.

Kylian Mbappé to win the Ballon d'Or

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5/2

Vinícius: Sharing the Spotlight

If anyone needs Salah to slow down, it’s Vinícius. The Brazilian has registered 10 goal contributions in 17 matches since 9 November but hasn’t scored in La Liga since then. His overall tally—8+5 in 18 league matches—doesn’t justify his position as the third-favorite for the Ballon d’Or. However, his Champions League form is a different story, boasting 7+2. This highlights a fundamental issue in Real Madrid’s Ballon d’Or race—the team has too many stars sharing the spotlight.

While one player dominates La Liga, another leads the charge in Europe. That’s great for the club but makes individual recognition harder to attain. With both Mbappé and Vinícius in contention, internal competition for votes could be an issue.

Vinícius Júnior to win the Ballon d'Or

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10/1

Barcelona: Not Keeping Up

The Barcelona duo of Lamine Yamal and Raphinha Belloli have long-shot odds, and rightly so. Yamal’s odds sit around 10/1 despite his 10 assists, but historically, creative playmakers have struggled to win this award. The only exception in recent years was Luka Modrić, and he was far more established.

Raphinha, however, presents an interesting case at close to 10/1 . His goal tally may be lower than Lewandowski’s or Mbappé’s, but he thrives in big games:

• Hat-trick against Bayern Munich (4:1)

• 3+2 against Real Madrid (in two matches) 

• Crucial goal against Borussia Dortmund (3:2)

• Brace and winner against Benfica (5:4)

• 2 assists against Atalanta (2:2)

If he maintains this level—especially in the Champions League—he could leapfrog both Yamal and Vinícius in the race. The La Liga title race will also heavily impact voting, meaning Raphinha still has time to make his case.

Meanwhile, Lewandowski’s odds 14/1 seem surprisingly high, especially considering Erling Haaland had identical odds before Manchester City’s elimination from the Champions League, even though his goals were often scored against teams such as Slovan Bratislava and Sparta Prague, or did not significantly impact the results – losses to Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid, a draw with Feyenoord Rotterdam. Haaland has scored 19 Premier League goals in 25 appearances, which is consistent with his typical performance level, although his club has faced challenges. Furthermore,  Lewandowski’s stats are actually superior, and he’s a full 36 years of age, not 24.

Now, there’s a caveat here: neither the Norwegian nor the Pole can really bank on international tournaments to boost their Ballon d’Or credentials, for obvious reasons. But with no major international competition this year, we’re solely focused on club form – well, almost, as we still have the international breaks to contend with.  

2025 Ballon d’Or: Prediction

Historically, forwards hold a significant advantage over midfielders in Ballon d’Or voting, and no standout midfielder has emerged to challenge Salah or Mbappé. Vinícius is having a relatively quiet season by his standards, while Mbappé’s case will rely on Real Madrid’s success in the Champions League.

Barring an unexpected collapse, Salah’s Liverpool won’t win the Premier League without him. Their Champions League campaign remains steady, and a favourable draw could see them cruise into the semi-finals. If Salah secures multiple trophies and impresses at the Club World Cup, the race may be over before the summer.

However, if Real Madrid and Liverpool meet in the latter stages of the Champions League, the Ballon d’Or race could take a dramatic turn. Given last year’s unpredictability—when the media prematurely handed the award to Vinícius—nothing can be ruled out. For now, Salah is the clear frontrunner, while Vinícius appears to be riding on last season’s momentum rather than current performances.

Mohamed Salah to win the 2025 Ballon d'Or

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27/20

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