Ballon d'Or Winner Odds: Who will win the award in 2024?
The ceremony for the Ballon d'Or will take place on October 28th at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris. Although it's still some time away, bookmakers have already swiftly released 2024 Ballon d'Or odds.
Who will win the award in 2024?
The results of the Euro and Copa America have altered the dynamics in the race for the award. Vinicius and Bellingham's hopes for the Ballon d'Or are diminishing, while one of the heroes of Euro 2024, Rodri, on the contrary, has increased his chances of winning.
2024 Ballon d'Or betting odds
The era of Messi and Ronaldo has ended, as indicated by the top 3 main contenders for the 2024 Ballon d'Or. However, the Argentinian has still risen into the top 10 candidates for the award after winning Copa America.
Following their triumph in the Champions League, Real Madrid stars Vinicius Junior and Bellingham had been considered the main favorites by bookmakers in this race. However, both players performed below their potential in recent international tournaments, affecting their odds. Formally, the Brazilian forward remains the leader in the pursuit of the Ballon d'Or, but his lead over the closest competitor is now minimal.
Contenders for the Ballon d'Or: odds to win
Before the Euro, Mbappé, Foden, Kane, and Kroos were seen as real contenders for the award, but now their chances are ridiculously small. Instead, a young Euro 2024 star Lamin Yamal has burst into the top 5 contenders.
Vinicius is no longer a huge favorite
Vicinius’ performance at the Copa America has tarnished the impression from the brilliant 2023/24 season. After Karim Benzema left the team, Vinicius was moved from the wing to the center-forward position in Real Madrid. In November 2023, he was sidelined for nearly 3 months due to a left thigh injury. As a result, he played 7 fewer matches in La Liga compared to the previous season. Additionally, he fell ill with a fever just 2 days before the Champions League final.
Persistence and self-belief helped the forward overcome all difficulties. Vinicius became the top scorer for his club, netting 24 goals in all competitions, overperforming his expected goals (xG) tally by 16 goals according to Understat, and scoring more goals for Real Madrid than anyone else in the Champions League (6 goals).
However, things took a downturn with his trip to the USA for the Copa America, where Vinicius and his national team had a disappointing campaign, being eliminated in the quarter-finals. He missed the quarter-final match due to yellow cards and ended the tournament with just 2 goals to his name. Such a performance might hinder Vinicius's chances of winning the Ballon d'Or.
Rodri — the best player of Euro 2024
The midfielder had an outstanding season, winning the English Premier League with Manchester City and then triumphing at the Euro with the Spanish national team. During Euro 2024, Rodri showcased his best qualities: dominating the midfield, controlling the ball adeptly, contributing effectively to attacks, and even scoring 1 goal. Despite being forced off the field at halftime during the final, he was named the tournament's best player.
Following such a powerful performance, Rodri soared to 2nd place in the list of Ballon d'Or contenders. Spain's head coach, de la Fuente, even publicly advocated for him to receive the Ballon d'Or. Undoubtedly, Rodri deserves the award, but there are two factors that could hinder his chances of winning: he is not an attacking player and lacks the level of media hype of his main competitors.
Jude Bellingham — a hero for Madrid and England national team
He had an electrifying start of the season, scoring 10 goals in his first 10 games, matching Cristiano Ronaldo's record. Bellingham scored his 300th goal against Barcelona, becoming the first Englishman since 2005 to do so in El Clásico. He finished the season as Real Madrid's top scorer in La Liga, was named the best young player in Europe in 2023, and was La Liga's Player of the Season.
During Euro 2024, Bellingham helped England reach the final, where they lost to Spain (1-2). While this might seem like a good result, there were many criticisms directed at Bellingham throughout the tournament, as with other attacking English players. He did not shine as brightly or play as effectively as he did for Real Madrid. It's unclear whether this was due to fatigue or Gareth Southgate's defensive tactics.
However, it would be unfair to say Bellingham had a failure at Euro 2024 - he scored England's first goal against Serbia in extra time, saving the team from elimination in the round of 16. Unfortunately, Bellingham lacked consistency, which may cost him the prestigious award.
Dani Carvajal – one of the European championships’ leaders
Dani Carvajal, the defender from Real Madrid, has surged into the top 5 favourites to win the Ballon d'Or following his impressive performance at the European Championship. Carvajal joined the ranks of players who have won both the Champions League and Euro 2024 in the same season.
Throughout Euro 2024, Carvajal avoided major defensive errors, effectively neutralizing any threats on his flank. The only blemish was his red card in the quarter-finals against Germany, after receiving a second yellow for a foul near the penalty area. However, he knew he would miss the semi-finals due to accumulated yellow cards nonetheless. Otherwise, Carvajal had an impeccable tournament, making a significant contribution to Spain's success.
Lamin Yamal — the top European talent
Yamal is the youngest-ever winner of the Euros in history. He turned 17 years old just a day before the decisive match against England. Despite his youth, the winger played as a leader of the Spanish team. He made 4 assists (including one in the final) and scored a spectacular goal against France, equalizing in a crucial match.
Yamal rightfully received the award for the best young player of Euro 2024. It's unlikely he will contend for the Ballon d'Or this year, but his presence in the top 5 candidates is a significant statement for the future.
Ballon d'Or 2024: prediction for the Individual Award
More often the Ballon d'Or is awarded to attacking players, but this time around, there isn't a prolific goal scorer leading the pack. Vinicius, currently topping the bookmakers' list of contenders, scored 24 goals in all competitions—respectable, but not outstanding. The Brazilian won the Champions League and even scored in the final, but then faltered in Copa America, increasing the chances of his European counterparts.
It seems like the perfect moment to honor a defensive player. Defensive midfielder Rodri not only had a stellar Euro, being named the tournament's best player, but also played a crucial role in his club's Premier League victory. It's no coincidence that Manchester City remained unbeaten in the league when the Spaniard was on the field.
Iniesta and Xavi in their time missed out on numerous awards due to the dominance of young Messi and Ronaldo. This time Rodri faces no competitors of that level, making him capable of clinching the Ballon d'Or.
Frequently Asked Questions
The 68th annual Ballon d'Or award ceremony will take place on October 28 at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris.
Vinicius – 5/4
Rodri – 3/2
Jude Bellingham – 4/1
Lamin Yamal – 18/1
The Ballon d'Or in 2023 was won by the World Cup champion Leo Messi.
Messi has won 8 Ballon d'Or awards. He received his first award in 2009 and has since added 7 more, including the 2023 Ballon d'Or.
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