Ballon d'Or Winner Odds: Who will win the award in 2025?
The Ballon d’Or race has taken a sharp turn. At the start of the season, Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior led the pack. By midseason, Mo Salah surged ahead. But now? The spotlight has shifted dramatically — and when was the last time we saw a goalkeeper among the top contenders?
Who Will Win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
As the season nears its conclusion, who holds the edge? What are the bookmakers saying? And where should your money go? We break it all down in our full preview.
Favorites 2025 Ballon d’Or: Betting Odds
Bookmakers tend to get it right late in the season — over the past 5–6 years, the Ballon d’Or has typically gone to one of the top two favourites, often to the second-favourite.
Last year, for instance, Rodri controversially leapfrogged Vinícius at the last moment. And while Lionel Messi spoiled the party for Lewandowski (2021) and Van Dijk (2019), he’s no longer in the running this time.
2025 Ballon d’Or Odds to win
Several PSG players are among the current frontrunners, but what happens if they lose the Champions League final to Inter? Lautaro Martínez's chances would skyrocket.
And let’s not forget — this year also features the Club World Cup, a tournament where two other favourites, Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, won’t be participating, as Barcelona didn’t qualify — unlike Inter, PSG, and Real Madrid.
PSG’s trio in the spotlight: Dembélé, Donnarumma, and Kvaratskhelia.
The odds have recently swung following Paris Saint-Germain’s thrilling surge to the Champions League final — a campaign where Ousmane Dembélé has emerged as a central figure.
Although he featured for just 90 minutes across both semi-final matches against Arsenal, the 28-year-old left his mark with a goal and an assist, helping PSG secure their spot in the showpiece event.
Dembélé’s Champions League journey this season has been nothing short of outstanding.
Champions League 2024 stats
Metric |
Total |
Knockout Stage |
Goals |
8 |
5 |
Assists |
4 |
2 |
Total Contributions |
12 |
7 |
His influence hasn’t been limited to Europe. In Ligue 1, Dembélé has matched that excellence, scoring 21 times and providing eight assists, playing a key role in delivering yet another domestic title for PSG.
His impact in cup competitions has also been notable. He struck the decisive goal in the Champions Trophy and bagged a brace in the French Cup semi-final, setting up a showdown with Reims in the final later this month.
This season in Ligue 1, PSG have conceded the fewest goals (34), thanks in large part to Donnarumma. The Italian was arguably the standout performer in PSG’s toughest Champions League clash — against Liverpool.
No goalkeeper has claimed the award since the legendary Russian Lev Yashin did so in 1963, but Gianluigi Donnarumma’s outstanding form at the Parc des Princes makes a strong case for his inclusion among football’s most elite.
Kvaratskhelia has the smallest chance of winning the Ballon d'Or among the PSG trio. He didn’t make it into the top scorers or assist charts after joining PSG mid-season. However, without him, the team wouldn’t be where it is now.
He has solidified the attack, often playing a key role in transitioning from defense, shooting, dribbling, and creating chances. But if PSG lose in the Champions League final, he simply won’t have the edge over his competitors. And if PSG win, who would risk giving him the award over Dembélé, who has scored more, assisted more, and was already named Ligue 1 Player of the Year?
A Pair from Barcelona: Yamal and Raphinha
Despite the semifinal loss to Inter, Lamine Yamal remains the second favourite for the Ballon d'Or. He worked wonders in the first match against Inter, and in the second, he was only denied by the post. The wunderkind is the best in successful dribbles, with 4.3 (58%) in the Champions League and 4.4 (55%) in La Liga. With 12 assists, he’s the top assist provider in La Liga.
His strength, however, is also his weakness when it comes to the Ballon d'Or. Excluding Ronaldo and Messi, the average age of the winner over the past two decades is 30. Yamal is just 17, and there’s a high likelihood he’ll be given time to develop, much like Benzema was in his early years.
Raphinha, the top scorer (13) and assist provider (8) in this season's Champions League, has a more suitable age. He is 28. He’s also second in assists and third in goals + assists in La Liga. All these numbers and achievements would undoubtedly have materialized into a Ballon d'Or if it weren't for the villains from Inter, who stole the final from Barcelona.
The dark horses: Martinez and Salah
If the Ballon d'Or goes to a Champions League finalist this year, Lautaro Martínez is firmly in the running. Now priced at 7/1, his odds may shorten further after Inter's progression to the final.
Despite injury concerns, he started the second leg against Barca at San Siro, scoring the opener and winning the penalty for a 2–0 lead.
Martínez has also been key in the Serie A title race, with Inter just one point behind Napoli and two matches remaining.
Lautaro is among the top five scorers in the Champions League (9 goals), despite playing for a team that isn’t known for high scoring. His biggest obstacle on the path to the Ballon d’Or is an injury that’s not yet fully healed — and it might even prevent him from playing in the final.
Liverpool started the season with such confidence, and Salah was dominating across all competitions, that it seemed he had no real rivals. But then came an early Champions League exit at the hands of PSG, followed by a loss to Newcastle in the domestic cup final.
Now Salah is left with just the Premier League title and the Golden Boot. Those are, of course, highly respectable achievements — but likely not enough for the Ballon d’Or. Especially considering that no Premier League player has ever won the award in back-to-back seasons.
2025 Ballon d’Or Prediction
Historically, forwards hold a significant advantage over midfielders in Ballon d’Or voting. Over the past 20 years, only three times has the Ballon d’Or gone to a player who didn’t win any international trophy — either with club or country. Twice it was Messi, and once, Cristiano Ronaldo.
That doesn’t bode well for the brilliant Raphinha and Yamal, who might fall short despite a domestic double with Barcelona. The club won’t be participating in this summer’s Club World Cup — unlike PSG and Inter.
By contrast, both Dembélé and Martinez will feature in that tournament. Their teams will also clash in the Champions League final — which, as many believe, could well determine the next Ballon d’Or winner. The Frenchman certainly has the upper hand. Since January, Ousmane Dembélé has been one of Europe’s most electric players. He scored 21 goals in official matches during the first three months of the year — a feat last achieved by Cristiano Ronaldo in 2018.
But Lautaro knows what it takes to lead his teams to international glory and pick up top individual honours along the way — just as he did at the last Copa América. And as we've seen before, the Ballon d’Or favourite isn’t always the one lifting the trophy in the end.
Who Will Win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
Frequently Asked Questions
The location and date of the 2025 Ballon d'Or ceremony are yet to be announced.
Ousmane Dembélé - 2/1
Lamine Yamal - 7/2
Gianluigi Donnarumma - 5/1
Lautaro Martinez - 7/1
The Ballon d'Or in 2024 was won by the Manchester City's midfielder Rodri.
Messi has won 8 Ballon d'Or awards. He received his first award in 2009 and has since added 7 more, including the 2023 Ballon d'Or.
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