Can Arne Slot’s Machine Win the Champions League This Season?
There is no Nottingham Forest in the Champions League.
Liverpool seem to have secured the Premier League title. They are in the EFL Cup final and are chasing a treble (albeit not a classic one). But what about the most unpredictable and prestigious tournament—the Champions League? Arne Slot's team has struggled since the start of the year, and they miraculously won the first leg of the Round of 16 against PSG.
Do bookmakers believe in the Reds' success, and what odds are being offered? We’ll break it down in our article.
Liverpool UCL Betting Odds
What an irony: winning the group stage only to face one of the toughest opponents in the Round of 16. Fortune played a cruel joke on Liverpool, placing them in the strongest half of the bracket. As a result, their odds to win the tournament increased, and they lost their status as the outright favourites.
Liverpool UCL Perspective
If Liverpool reach the quarter-finals, they will most likely face Aston Villa. On the surface, that seems fine: in their last six head-to-head meetings, the Reds haven’t lost once, allowing only two draws. But beyond that—pure nightmare: Real Madrid or Atletico. And if Arsenal make it through, that’s not much better. In short, this is no easy path to the final—unlike, say, Barcelona. By the way, you can bet on a Liverpool vs. Barcelona final at
11/2
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The first leg of the Round of 16 against PSG was a wake-up call for Liverpool fans. The Reds hadn’t looked this helpless all season. 29%—that was their possession. 0.27 xG compared to PSG’s 1.82, despite the Parisians wasting chance after chance, having underperformed their xG by over 10 goals this season.
Yet, Liverpool still won (1:0), showing shades of Real Madrid—the ability to turn up when it matters most, a critical Champions League trait. The Reds have become more pragmatic, scoring four more goals in the second halves of their UCL matches than in the first halves.
Bookmakers have no doubts about Arne Slot’s side progressing. The last time they lost at Anfield was in September. And luckily for them, there’s no Nottingham Forest in the Champions League.
By the way, this was the first time this season that Liverpool won while being underdogs with the bookmakers. Yes, they’re experiencing a slight dip, but let’s not forget their overall stats—setting aside that rough night in Paris.
Liverpool stats in UCL 24/25
|
Metric |
Result (League rank) |
|
Goals after counter attack (90 min) |
0.4 (2) |
|
Goals Conceded |
5 (3) |
|
Clean Sheets |
6 (2) |
It seems like Liverpool have become more defense-oriented. At least in the Champions League, even Salah—who is in outstanding form—has been scoring modestly. Yet, he remains the top contender for PFA Player of the Year
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and is in the race for the Ballon d’Or.
In Europe, the Egyptian has been more of a provider than a finisher. He has four assists, just one behind the leading group of four players, each with five. However, Zappacosta and De Ketelaere from Atalanta are out of the tournament, and Achraf Hakimi from PSG likely has just one match left to improve his tally.
It seems Liverpool have deliberately slowed down to conserve energy for the season’s climax. No one wants a repeat of 2021-22, when they chased a quadruple but collapsed in the final moments, including the Champions League final.
Main Competitors
Who could stop Liverpool from lifting the UCL trophy this year? The Spanish clubs, who became the bookmakers’ favourites after the knockout draw, are the biggest threat.
Real Madrid
Madrid win the Champions League in any form and under any circumstances. Before the tournament even started, their odds were the lowest in five years for a reason. Mbappé exploded in 2024 with 14 goals in 14 matches, while Rodrygo and Vinícius are both in Sofascore’s top 10 player ratings this season.
But the defensive issues remain. Carvajal, Militão, and Rüdiger are all missing. Real Madrid also failed to sign Trent Alexander-Arnold, who remains with one of their main competitors—Liverpool.
Barcelona
According to bookmakers, Barcelona are the current UCL favourites, thanks to an exceptional draw. While Real, Liverpool, Atlético, and Arsenal are battling in one half of the bracket, Barça are up against Benfica, with a potential quarter-final clash against an inconsistent Dortmund, Kompany’s unpredictable Bayern, or Inter, a side strong defensively but not much else.
Under Hansi Flick, Barcelona have transformed. They started the season brilliantly, suffered injuries and doubts, but look at them now: top of La Liga, the highest-scoring team in the UCL (29 goals). Raphinha and Lewandowski are among the top five goal scorers, while Raphinha leads the goals + assists chart (13) alongside Guirassy.
There’s also the ever-dangerous Atletico Madrid, and outside of Spain, Bayern and Inter, though their performances in 2025 haven’t been convincing. We’ll get a clearer picture after the first legs of the quarter-finals.
Columbia
Paraguay
Venezuela
Peru
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Ecuador
