Champions League Final Betting Odds
El Clásico in Munich?
On May 31, the final of the 2024–25 Champions League will take place at the Munich Football Arena, better known as the Allianz Arena. Following Liverpool’s exit, the chances of English teams not only winning the trophy but even reaching the final have significantly dropped.
The Most Likely Final
Who has the best shot at playing in Munich on May 31? How likely is an all-Spanish final? We'll evaluate each contender's path, explain how fans can attend the biggest match of the year, and of course, suggest the top betting opportunities.
Champions League 2024-25 Final Odds
Let’s keep annoying Barça fans a bit more by pointing out how lucky they were with the draw. No wonder the bookies are giving them relatively short odds to make the final. That’s with all due respect to Raphinha, Lewandowski, and even Szczęsny.
Odds to Reach the Final
Over the past five years, bookmakers correctly predicted at least one finalist in four out of five seasons at the quarter-final stage. In one of those seasons — 2019–20 — they nailed both.
Barcelona vs PSG: The Most Likely Final
Barça's case is clear: they finished second overall behind Liverpool in the group stage, and their stats have been on fire. They’ve scored more goals than any other team in this year’s UCL (32), and their average possession (57.9%) trails only Bayern, PSG, and the now-eliminated Man City. Raphinha and Lewandowski are both in the top 4 for goals, and Raphinha is also in the top 5 for assists. He's currently the favourite to finish as the top assist provider at
7/4
For context: over the last 10 seasons, the highest-scoring team has gone on to win the Champions League 4 times. And by the way, Barcelona have lifted the trophy twice in that span — and in one of those seasons, they were also the top scorers.
PSG’s route is less straightforward. Sure, knocking out Liverpool boosted their status among the tournament favourites. They’re in the top 5 for goals (25), and top 3 for both possession (60.3%) and passing accuracy (89.5%). Dembélé has been electric, Kvaratskhelia has slotted in seamlessly, and Luis Enrique boasts the second-best win percentage (63.2%) in UCL history.
But look at their projected path to the final: while Barça face leaky defences in Benfica and Dortmund, PSG had to survive a gruelling clash with Liverpool, are now up against Aston Villa and knockout specialist Unai Emery, and would likely face their biggest nightmare — Real Madrid — in the semi-final. PSG have never beaten Real Madrid in a two-legged knockout tie.
All-Spanish Final?
Spain is the only country still in the running for a single-nation final — a scenario that's historically aligned with Champions League trends. There have been four all-Spanish finals in UCL history — more than any other nation.
That said, over the last 30 seasons, the overall probability of a single-nation final is just above 25%.
Still, we have Real Madrid (6 finals in the last 15 years) and a resurgent Barcelona (2 finals in 15 years). Combined, that’s just one final fewer than all the other current quarter-finalists put together over the same period.
Of course, Ancelotti’s Real look shaky this season. They may have already let La Liga slip away. But that's actually a good omen for the Champions League: Real Madrid tend to win the UCL in seasons when they don’t win La Liga — 4 of their last 6 European triumphs (two-thirds) happened in such years. And they haven’t lost a Champions League final since 1981.
Bayern’s Home Final
Bayern Munich aren’t the favourites — but when has that ever stopped the Red Machine? While Real lead the way with the most finals over the past 15 years, Bayern are second with four. One of those was at home — a night they’d rather forget. In 2012, Drogba rescued Chelsea late, Robben missed in extra time, and Bayern lost on penalties at the Allianz.
In all of UCL history, only four finals have featured a team playing in its home stadium. Should Bayern reach the final in Munich again, they’d be the first to do it twice.
And they seem to be gaining momentum. They’re joint second in goals scored (28) and second in possession (61.9%). Harry Kane is a top-three contender for the Golden Boot, priced at
13/5
Yes, Kompany has faced criticism this season. But being a new manager isn’t always a bad thing in the Champions League — over the past 15 years, rookie managers have reached the final every 3 years on average. Only Terzić with Dortmund failed to win the final after getting there.
Other Final Contenders
Once again, artificial intelligence is challenging the oddsmakers. Opta’s supercomputer, for example, gives Arsenal and Inter higher chances of making the final than Real Madrid or Bayern.
Champions League final probability according to Opta
|
Team |
Percentage |
|
Barcelona |
41.5% |
|
PSG |
36% |
|
Arsenal |
30.3% |
|
Inter Milan |
32.7% |
|
Real Madrid |
26% |
|
Bayern Munich |
21.3% |
|
Aston Villa |
7.7% |
|
Borussia Dortmund |
4.5% |
One area where both bookmakers and Opta see eye to eye is when it comes to the top two favourites — and the two longshots. And if, against all logic and our advice, you decide to back Aston Villa and Borussia Dortmund to meet in the final, Bluefox has you covered for that too.
Chelsea
Ipswich
Liverpool
West Ham
Alaves
Real Madrid
Newcastle
Manchester Utd
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Tottenham
