Champions League Play-off Betting Odds

Who’s Right: The Bookmakers or Opta?

The Champions League is entering its semifinal stage — and for the first time since 2018, the final four feature clubs from four different countries. They all represent the European top 5. And bookmakers believe that two sides have a better chance to advance to the final.

Who Will Reach the Champions League 2024-25 final?

Barcelona

11/20

PSG

7/10

The bookmakers and Opta’s supercomputer find themselves on opposite sides — almost in perfect contradiction. So who’s really the favourite heading into the Champions League semifinals? Let’s break it down — and, of course, highlight the best bets.

Champions League Semi-Final Odds

We’ll start with the most obvious question: who’s most likely to reach the final? This is where the bookmakers deserve some credit. Over the last five years, they’ve correctly predicted at least one of the finalists every single time — and twice, in 2020 and 2023, they got both right.

Arsenal vs PSG: Passion or Pragmatism?

The Gunners haven’t featured in a Champions League final since 2006, but they’re arguably the most cohesive side among the remaining four. Yes, Inter are close in that regard, but Arsenal have a clear edge in youth and athleticism.

Despite their solidity, Arsenal are only fifth in terms of goals scored in this tournament. But history shows that defence — not goal output — is what often gets you to the final. In four of the last five seasons, at least one finalist had a top-three defence. This year, only Inter and Liverpool have conceded fewer goals than Arsenal. In terms of clean sheets, Arsenal share second place. And until recently, they led both the Premier League and the Champions League in xGA.

Bookmakers, however, give the edge to PSG. And it’s hard to argue: the Parisians have a terrifying front line — not just Dembélé and Kvaratskhelia, but also full-backs who bomb forward with purpose. Achraf Hakimi ranks third in the tournament for assists (5), and he’s currently the second-favourite to finish as top assist provider, with some very tempting odds.

Top Assists – Achraf Hakimi

Bonus £40

Bet

9/1

PSG have also improved their efficiency in front of goal and their pressing game. This season alone, they’ve completed 36 successful high presses leading to shots, more than they managed in the last three seasons combined (28).

PSG to Qualify

Bonus £30

Bet

4/5

A lot of the credit goes to Luis Enrique, who now holds the second-highest win percentage in Champions League history.

UCL Managers Win Percentage (min 30 games)

Both Arsenal and PSG have wrapped up their domestic business and can now fully focus on the Champions League. PSG, in particular, have matured. Even Ousmane Dembélé has stopped clowning around — after the loss to Aston Villa, he collected his Man of the Match award looking like he’d just come from a funeral.

Arsenal, meanwhile, have shown real depth and adaptability — even when their entire forward line was in the treatment room. Five players on this team are capable of taking the game by the scruff of the neck, from Ødegaard to Declan Rice. Bukayo Saka is back to full fitness. And here’s a stat to chew on: in the last ten years, three of the five teams that knocked Real Madrid out went on to win the tournament. Oh — and the Gunners already beat PSG earlier this season. 2–0.

Arsenal to Qualify

Bonus £30

Bet

1/1

Barcelona vs Inter: The Best Defence Faces the Best Attack

Barcelona have scored more goals than any other side in this year’s competition (37), despite playing two fewer matches than Bayern, Dortmund, and PSG. Two of their players are currently in the top three for the Golden Boot race:

Top Goalscorer

Raphinha

9/10

Lewandowski

11/2

Unlike Arsenal and PSG, Barcelona still have a title fight on their hands in La Liga — and it’s starting to show. Between March 27 and April 15 (a 457-hour stretch), the Catalans played seven matches — the tightest fixture schedule in club history. That might explain their shock 3–1 defeat to Borussia Dortmund.

As for Inter, this is their second semi-final appearance in three years. Alongside Arsenal, they’re one of the most tactically cohesive teams left in the tournament. Marcus Thuram continues to impress, and Lautaro Martínez — the standout performer in the Bayern tie — is proving to be just as vocal off the pitch as he is clinical on it.

Eight clean sheets. Just five goals conceded. By both metrics, Inter Milan boast the best defence in the Champions League this season. Add to that their elite pressing game, and you’ve got the perfect antidote to Barcelona’s free-flowing attack. In the first leg of their quarter-final against Bayern, Inter registered 573 high-intensity pressures — the highest single-match total by any club in this year’s competition.

Inter may be Barcelona’s trickiest possible opponent. But realistically, they can hold out for about 60 minutes — and Barcelona are not the kind of team to let a tiring side off the hook in the final half-hour.

Who Will Qualify? Bluefox

Barcelona

3/5

Inter

27/20

Champions League Winner Odds

What’s more, this might be the first time in the last five or six seasons that all four semifinalists — PSG, Arsenal, Barcelona, and Inter — are so evenly matched. It all makes sense: three of them finished the group stage among the top four overall.

Champions League 2024-2025 Winner Odds

Here’s the twist: OPTA’s supercomputer doesn’t seem to care that both Barcelona and PSG look superior on paper.

In the quarter-finals, artificial intelligence made its case — backing both Arsenal and Inter correctly. Still, as the knockout stages roll on, bookmakers’ predictions continue to hit the mark more often. At the end of the day, Opta doesn’t lose money when it gets it wrong.

Barcelona to Win UCL 24-25

Bonus £50

Bet

2/1

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