Champions League Play-off Betting Odds

Who will win: Barcelona or Barcelona’s former coach?

With Liverpool eliminated, the chances of English teams winning the Champions League are plummeting like meme coin prices on a crypto exchange. According to bookmakers’ predictions, for the second year in a row, the semifinals are expected to take place without English representation. The last time this happened was 29 years ago.

Who Will Win UCL 24/25?

Barcelona

3/1

PSG

67/20

Real Madrid

7/2

What odds have the bookmakers prepared for the upcoming quarterfinals and the overall outcome of the most prestigious club tournament? We’ll break it all down, highlight the best odds, and analyze what Arsenal and Aston Villa can hope for.

Champions League Quarterfinals Odds

The Champions League is often called the most unpredictable competition. Let's exclude Real Madrid for a moment. If we look only at the knockout stages, bookmakers have provided accurate predictions less than 50% of the time over the last five years.

Odds to reach semifinals

Arsenal vs. Real Madrid: A Team Without Forwards vs. A Team Without Defenders

Arguably the most star-studded matchup of these quarterfinals. The Athletic has already reported that Bukayo Saka is expected to be fully fit by April. However, Arteta still faces a striking crisis. Real Madrid, on the other hand, have a mirrored issue in defense: Rüdiger is back, but Mendy, Militão, and Carvajal remain sidelined.

Opta’s supercomputer gives Arsenal a slight edge—perhaps based on their dominant Round of 16 performances. But there’s a big difference between dismantling PSV and playing a second-leg quarterfinal at the Santiago Bernabéu. That said, both teams’ attacking stats are fairly even.

Surprisingly, Arsenal have the historical edge in head-to-head meetings. Since 2006, they have two wins and one draw in four matches. However, there’s a big caveat: since 2010, Real Madrid have failed to reach the semifinals only twice and have never lost a quarterfinal tie.

Of course, everyone knows about Real Madrid’s magic—they win even when the odds seem against them. For instance, referees always seem to catch a double touch by the opposition during a penalty, like with Atlético’s Álvarez. But Los Blancos have a worrying situation with yellow cards. Here’s the list of players at risk of suspension for the second leg:

• Vinícius

• Vázquez

• Rüdiger

• Camavinga

• Modrić

• Endrick

On one side, we have attacking monsters in Mbappé, Vinícius, Rodrygo, and Valverde. On the other, the best defense in the world, led by Gabriel and Saliba. For reference, Arsenal leads both the Premier League and Champions League in xGA: 24.4 and 8.7, respectively.

Still, bookmakers have Real Madrid as favorites—just as they did against Man City and Atlético. And so far, Madrid haven’t let them down.

Real Madrid to reach semifinals

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Bet

3/5

Aston Villa vs. PSG: The Cup Specialist vs. His Former Club

Unai Emery’s men have one of the two most generous odds for qualification in these quarterfinals. But frankly, it’s hard to imagine a more suitable opponent for them. The ultra-attacking Parisians will face a team and coach who love and excel at playing on the counter.

Luis Enrique’s side might recall the first half of the season, when their xG was six goals higher than their actual tally. If that trend continues, impact substitutes like Asensio and Rashford won’t forgive them. Asensio, in particular, has thrived at Villa—scoring seven goals in eight games, the same number he managed in 47 matches for PSG.

Yet, experts are unanimous: PSG are the clear favorites. They completely outplayed Liverpool, the main contender for the trophy. Even Van Dijk and his elite defense struggled against the chaos of Dembélé, Kvaratskhelia, and Barcola. Meanwhile, Hakimi, despite being a defender, is joint-second in assists (5) and the second-favorite for the most assists award.

Achraf Hakimi Top Assists

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Bet

11/2

Arne Slot even believes PSG are the best team in Europe right now:

For Aston Villa, this is their Champions League debut. However, over the past 20 years, two debutants—Villarreal and RB Leipzig—have reached the semifinals.

Barcelona vs. Borussia Dortmund: The Last Easy Opponent for the Blaugrana

Everyone has already pointed out that Barcelona landed the most favorable side of the draw. Bookmakers have no doubts that they’ll beat Dortmund. After all, Barça boasts the best attack in this Champions League campaign. They have scored the most goals (32), despite playing two fewer matches than Real Madrid, PSG, and Bayern. Two of their players are in the race for the top scorer award.

Top Goalscorer

Raphinha

2/1

Lewandowski

5/2

Dortmund, meanwhile, are in crisis. Sabitzer is no longer a reliable presence, and even Kobel has been making costly mistakes, as seen against Lille. Their schedule is also brutal—between the two legs against Barça, they have a crucial away clash against Bayern in the Bundesliga.

Bayern vs. Inter: The Most Unpredictable Tie

Despite the uncertainty, bookmakers favor Bayern. The "Red Machine" silenced critics with a dominant win over Bayer Leverkusen. Online, fans are already joking that Dortmund’s Maximilian Bayer has outscored Leverkusen’s entire squad in the knockout stage. Harry Kane remains one of the top scorers in the tournament. Maybe this season, the curse will break spectacularly if he secures two major trophies at once.

Inter, however, boast an incredible defense. In 10 matches, they have conceded just two goals—one of them a penalty. But their squad consists largely of aging stars who arrived as free agents. And Simone Inzaghi’s record against Bayern is downright grim:

• 4 games

• 4 defeats

• Goal difference: 2-10

Bayern Munich to reach semifinals

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Bet

11/20

Champions League Winner Odds 2025

With Liverpool eliminated and Real Madrid underwhelming against Atlético, Barcelona emerges as the clear tournament favorite.

Top 5 Contenders

Real have even lost their second place in the bookmakers' odds. However, Spain remains the dominant nation in this year's tournament.

Winning Nation:

Spain

11/10

France

67/20

England

9/2

PSG, having dethroned Liverpool’s kings, have now become the second-biggest favorite and are seen as the main contender to face Barcelona in the final.

Name the Finalists – Barcelona vs PSG

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Bet

5/1

PSG’s undeniable trump card is their coach. Luis Enrique is arguably the most tactically sophisticated manager among the remaining clubs. Moreover, he holds the second-highest win percentage in Champions League history.

UCL Managers Win Percentage (min 30 games)

Kompany may lack experience in this regard, but Bayern’s magic is always a factor. Meanwhile, Arteta remains a dark horse—capable of beating anyone.

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