Donald Trump specials: odds and predictions
This man can change the shape of the entire world.
Donald Trump marks an important milestone — 100 days in office as president. The new administration has already made waves by launching a trade war with China. The American leader is promising to annex Greenland and bring an end to the war in Ukraine. But how much faith can we really place in such bold declarations? Let’s take a closer look — and, of course, explore the most intriguing betting markets.
Top 5 most interesting possible specials
Trump Nobel Prize Odds
Trump has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize four times—at least publicly. The most recent attempt came from U.S. Congresswoman Claudia Tenney, who nominated him for the so-called "Abraham Accords" between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain in 2020.
It was a breakthrough. To put it into perspective: before that, Israel had established diplomatic relations with only two Arab countries—Egypt and Jordan. Given the current turmoil in the Middle East, any positive precedent is on the Nobel Committee’s radar.
Trump, with his characteristic modesty, has already declared that he deserves the Prize more than anyone else. But what do history and statistics say about his chances? Awarding the Prize to politicians has been a real trend in the 21st century. Roughly every three years, a statesman is honored. The list includes five presidents (both current and former). And do you know which country’s leaders dominate? You guessed it—the U.S.
Nobel Peace Prize. Presidential laureates in the 21st century.
Personality |
Position |
Year |
Achievement |
Juan Manuel Santos |
President of Colombia |
2016 |
Decisive efforts in ending more than 50 years of civil war in the country |
Ellen Johnson Sirleaf |
President of Liberia |
2011 |
Non-violent struggle for women's safety and women's right to full participation in peace-building processes |
Barack Obama |
President of the United States |
2009 |
Efforts in strengthening international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples |
Martti Ahtisaari |
Former President of Finland |
2008 |
Significant efforts in resolving international conflicts on multiple continents over three decades |
Jimmy Carter |
Former President of the United States |
2002 |
Decades-long efforts in the peaceful resolution of international conflicts, promotion of democracy, and human rights |
Some might argue that U.S. representatives are involved in resolving conflicts that their country itself helped create (hello, Korean Peninsula). But the fact remains: if you want to win the Nobel Peace Prize, there's no better position than being the President of a Superpower.
Trump came to power with promises to end the crisis in Ukraine. Any real contribution to peace is another coin in the Nobel piggy bank. Perhaps that’s why the odds for this are the lowest in the Trump Specials.
Perhaps it’s the peace plan for the Russia–Ukraine conflict proposed by Donald Trump. Or maybe it’s his potential involvement in resolving the Middle East crisis between Israel and Palestine. Either way, one thing is certain: over the past two months, the odds on him winning the Nobel Peace Prize have noticeably shortened.
By the way, don’t even think about trusting bookmakers when they release odds on Nobel Prize favorites. Over the past 5 years, they haven’t guessed it once when it comes to the Peace Prize.
U.S. annexing Greenland, Panama Canal and Canada Odds
Is Trump seriously talking about buying Greenland? The disappointing answer for the strategic rivals of the U.S. (primarily China) is yes. The reasons are:
-
Minerals (rare earth metals)
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Strategic location (military and trade potential)
Seventy percent of neodymium, praseodymium, and other rare earth metals, without which your iPhone won’t work, are mined in China. And there are deposits of these metals under the ice in Greenland. Additionally, Greenland offers the shortest route from Europe to North America, which is important both for trade and for the U.S. military fleet. So yes, this chunk of permafrost is really valuable to America.
Over the past 200 years, countries have regularly purchased territories. Over half a century ago, Indonesia bought West Papua from the Netherlands. Just recently, in 2016, Egypt sold two islands in the Red Sea to Saudi Arabia. But most frequently, the U.S. has expanded its territory using dollars—starting with Louisiana and Florida in the early 19th century and ending with the Virgin Islands in 1917. Believe it or not, they bought them from Denmark—the current suzerain of Greenland. So, there's some experience there.
The whole world heard how Trump threatened to use military force if the deal fell through. Well, in this century, the U.S. has used military force the most to solve foreign policy issues (Saddam Hussein and Slobodan Milošević send their regards from the afterlife). There have already been precedents for military redrawing of borders in Europe—Kosovo and, most recently, the Ukrainian conflict.
In short, formally, Trump has his hands untied. But experience shows that threats and tough rhetoric are mainly a way to get opponents to the negotiating table. Announced sanctions against Canada and Mexico were immediately frozen and negotiations were announced. The same thing happened with Panama and the Panama Canal.
Speaking of it: the Panamanian authorities swiftly responded to Trump’s threats by transferring control of the ports from Hong Kong-based companies to American ones. Still, we wouldn’t recommend rushing to bet on the U.S. “acquiring” the canal — it already, in many ways, belongs to them.
Although bookmakers currently rate the chances of acquiring the Canal and Greenland as roughly equal.
The governments of both Denmark and Greenland flatly refused to discuss the possibility of selling the island. Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede publicly stated:
However, he immediately stated that he was open to talks with Trump. It seems there will be something to negotiate. In general, such a deal would take a lot of time, and it's unlikely to close by 2025. The U.S. might obtain rare earth metals from Ukraine, and talks are already underway. Radical measures aren’t necessary for them. In short, the odds are clearly underestimated.
But that doesn’t mean no work is being done in Greenland. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, already visited the island in January. Perhaps it was laying the groundwork for a visit by the man himself?
As for the talks about annexing Canada – it’s pure populism. The only precedent for the peaceful unification of entire countries in the 21st century is the reunification of West and East Germany. Clearly, Washington and Ottawa are a different matter. Eighty percent of the population is against it. The Canadians wouldn’t gain any economic benefit from such a deal. Finally, in the case of military confrontation, NATO would split. Betting on that is even beyond the realm of fun.
Epilogue
While Trump’s hardline rhetoric and bold moves in foreign policy sometimes produce immediate results, stock markets have responded with record drops. This, among other factors, is why bookmakers are now predicting a recession in the U.S. economy (defined as a budget deficit lasting more than two months) in 2025. If it happens, it would be the first such event since 2020 — when, notably, Trump was also president.
USA Recession in 2025
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