Edwards vs Covington: betting odds & prediction

American MMA fighter Colby Covington will face Leon Edwards, the current UFC welterweight champion. The bout will take place on December 16th at UFC 296, in the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

In this article, we'll cover betting offers, odds, and an exclusive prediction for the Covington vs. Edwards fight.

The main card fights are expected to start around 22:00 UK time. The live broadcast will be available to UFC Fight Pass subscribers.


Edwards vs Covington odds 

Before his rematch with Usman, Leon Edwards was considered an underdog in a potential fight against Colby Covington aka Chaos. However, after such a confident win over the former champion, Leon has become a slight underdog in the upcoming bout. You can bet on Edwards to win at odds of 7/10 .

Edwards vs Covington betting odds




Unibet 1/1 10/1















Colby has proven his superiority in the fight against Masvidal, but this time, fighting and endurance may not be enough. Betting sites offer odds of 5/4 for Covington's victory.

Statistics and physical data

Leon not only surpasses Colby in terms of anthropometry but also in weight. While Covington is considered a natural welterweight who rarely cuts weight, Edwards is accustomed to "making weight" for his division.

Colby Covington
Leon Edwards
20 Fights 26
17 Wins 21
3 Defeats 3
0 Draws / NC's 2
180 Height 188
183 Reach 188
76.83 Weight 77.3
35 Age 32

Leon Edwards

  • Former BAMMA welterweight champion. Current UFC welterweight champion. 

  • Record: 26 fights, 21 wins, 3 defeats, 2 NCs.

Perhaps, Leon is watching his past matches with horror after his last two fights with Usman. Over these months, he has truly improved his technical skills, endurance, and most importantly, his fighting IQ. All he needs to do now is not get pulled into the rival’s ground game and do damage before the fight goes to the ground.

What to expect from Edwards in the fight against Covington?

Leon will be twice as aggressive as in his last bout against Kamaru. Whether he wants it to or not, Edwards will have to do everything to knock out Covington before the halfway point. Otherwise, we can expect a serious endurance drop that the American wrestler will undoubtedly take advantage of.

Leon will increase the number of high kicks and close the distance with Covington to carry out aggressive attacks with jabs and hooks. His main task will be not to be taken to the ground by Colby Covington in the first two rounds. He must make Covington take breaks between takedown attempts and break him down in the stand-up during these seconds.

Edwards' chances of winning

Considering how much Leon has progressed after his 2 bouts against Usman, his chances are extremely high. But 80% of success in the fight with Covington depends on rational energy distribution.

Edwards will have to choose between aggressive knockout blows and 25-minute tactical maneuvring. And there's a sense that the Brit will choose the first option.

After all, Usman couldn't push the pace in the 4th or 5th rounds or take Leon down in those segments, as Colby can.

After all, Usman couldn't ramp up the pace as much in rounds 4-5 or take Leon down during those periods, compared to Covington. Also, don't forget Covington's endurance, as he can withstand even the heaviest punches. So if Leon's high kick doesn't work this time, he will have a tough fight.

Edwards’ Last 5 Fights

Date Opponent Result Method
18th March 2023 Kamaru Usman Won Decision
20th August 2022 Kamaru Usman


12th June 2021 Nate Diaz



13th March 2021 Belal Muhammad

No Contest

Stoppage (Eye poke)

20th July 2019

Rafael dos Anjos



Colby Covington

  • Former interim UFC welterweight champion. Professional wrestler.

  • Record: 20 fights, 17 wins, 3 defeats.

It's hard to maintain a neutral attitude towards Colby Covington. Fans either love or hate his fighting style and behaviour. Over the past few years of non-stop trash talk, Covington has crossed all possible boundaries in dialogues with the majority of the roster.

Simultaneously, over his entire career, Covington has lost only 3 times, and just once by knockout. Chaos is a nightmare rival for anyone. And believe us, right now he is currently in top shape and still capable of fighting for the title.

What to expect from Covington in the fight against Edwards?

While Leon needs to radically rework his game plan, then Colby, on the contrary, has to meticulously repeat his bout against Masvidal, with as many takedown attempts as possible in the first round and maximum control with pressure on the rival.

Colby must avoid any lengthy stand-up exchanges. Of course, he has no doubts that he can land a couple of Diaz-style hooks at Leon, but the problem is that Chaos is unlikely to surprise Edwards in the stand-up throughout the entire bout. And of course, he definitely won't have the capacity for a knockout.

Chaos is still capable of defeating rivals with his superhuman endurance. However, this time he must be extremely careful in the stand-up.

Covington’s chances of winning

As mentioned earlier, all of Colby's chances will rely on takedowns and short boxing combinations. It can't be said that he has an average striking ability; rather, it doesn't stylistically suit a rival like Leon.

After all, Edwards took some heavy punches from Usman and survived 2 fights. Colby will have to devote all his energy to do similar damage on him in the stand-up.

And if the fight reaches the scorecards point, things will also be highly ambiguous. There's no doubt that Covington will gain points for control on the ground and dominant positions, while the advantage in clean hits will already be in Edwards' favour. That's exactly why it's difficult to select a favourite in this fight.

Covington’s last 5 fights 

Date Opponent Result Method
6th November 2021

Kamaru Usman



19th September 2020

Tyron Woodley



14th December 2019

Kamaru Usman



3rd August 2019

Robbie Lawler



9th June 2018

Rafael dos Anjos



Edwards vs. Covington: Prediction

It can never be repeated too often that, for me, Covington is a true MMA phenomenon. While 90% of fighters chase dominance in lighter divisions, draining themselves with extreme weight cuts, Covington continues competing at his natural 77kg weight. Just imagine what he could do in the lightweight division!

Lack of physical stature has been Covington's main problem. He's too small for welterweight, while Leon looks like a real heavyweight next to him. And every time it's hard to believe that Edwards still weighs 77 kg.

If it weren't for the factor of physical strength and size, I would consider Covington the favourite. But in this bout, I won't choose between the W1 and W2 options. Covington doesn't inspire confidence in the stand-up and if he fails to overpower and suppress Leon, he will definitely lose.

Edwards, on the other hand, was too casual about Kamaru's takedown attempts. Yes, he was confident that he could always get back to his feet and realised that Usman wouldn't waste all his energy on submissions, but if he allows similar laxity against Covington – he’s doomed.

A late finish in this bout seems much more likely to me. I doubt we'll see a decision: if the fight reaches rounds 4-5, both fighters will start taking more risks. This especially applies to Colby, who will still try to secure a path to victory but with less speed. This is the moment when he'll either be able to submit his rival or take a dangerous combo or high kick.

Our bet and prediction: the 4th round will start and the fight will end prematurely.