Europa League 24/25: Favourites, Betting Odds and Predictions
The new Europa League season kicks off on September 25, marking the first under its new format. The final is set for May 21, 2025, at San Mamés stadium in Bilbao, Spain. Let’s take a look at who the bookmakers see as the main favourites, assess the teams' chances, and suggest some bets.
Who will win Europa League 24/25?
Top 5 favourites to win Europa League
Under the new format, which we’ll explain in more detail later, clubs eliminated from the Champions League will no longer drop into the Europa League. So, there’s no need to fear the sudden arrival of a team like Juventus, who might have flopped in the Champions League group stage, or worse, Aston Villa led by Europa League expert Unai Emery. This makes it worth taking a closer look at the preseason odds while, of course, keeping an eye on teams' current form. For instance, Manchester United have already fallen from their spot as the top favourite after a shaky start in the Premier League.
Tottenham
Home opponents: Roma, AZ Alkmaar, Qarabag, Elfsborg
Away opponents: Rangers, Ferencvaros, Galatasaray, Hoffenheim
Initially, Tottenham were the second favourites to claim the trophy. However, after receiving a favourable draw and observing Manchester United's poor beginning to the season, Spurs have now emerged as the clear favourites to win the Europa League.
It seems the new Europa League format suits Spurs perfectly, where encountering a top-tier giant requires some effort. Of course, the now iconic line from “In Bruges” no longer applies, but who would argue that Tottenham would feel more comfortable in a group with the likes of Viktoria Plzeň and PAOK than in the Premier League? There, they’ve fully lived up to the skeptics' expectations this season: easily beating underdogs like Brentford and Everton with a combined score of 7-1 but faltering against Newcastle and Arsenal.
One of the two real challenges for Ange Postecoglou's side will be a game against Roma. Fortunately, this match will be at home, where Spurs have conceded less than a goal per game this season. Meanwhile, Roma struggle to score on the road, with half of their away games ending in 0-0 draws. The bigger challenge, however, could be Galatasaray at home, boasting a perfect record in their domestic league and nearly double the goal difference of their closest rivals. With an attack featuring not only veterans like Icardi, Mertens, and Batshuayi but also young talents like Yılmaz and Osimhen, keeping them at bay will be no easy task.
Having remained relatively quiet in the transfer market, Tottenham have been fortunate with injuries. Their most expensive signing, centre-forward Dominic Solanke, who cost over €64 million, has already made his mark. Spurs are also among the top five scoring teams in the Premier League. There’s little doubt that teams like Qarabağ and Elfsborg will add to Postecoglou’s side's attacking achievements.
Tottenham struggle with a mental barrier to winning trophies, and Postecoglou has shown he is willing to prioritise league success over cup competitions. So, despite all the praise, it might be more reasonable to bet on Spurs reaching the final. The odds are slightly lower, but it offers a safety net in case of yet another nervous breakdown from Tottenham.
Manchester United
Home opponents: Rangers, PAOK, Bodo/Glimt, Twente
Away opponents: Porto, Fenerbahce, Viktoria Plzen, FCSB
On paper, no team should be defeating Manchester United in the Europa League. However, as we know, football is not played on paper, and Erik Ten Hag's tactical approach has room for improvement. The club has won this competition once, in 2017, and reached the final again in 2021, only to lose on penalties to Villarreal. While the FA Cup saved Ten Hag last season, could the Europa League serve as his safety net this time?
Manchester United face significant challenges away from home, with Porto, unbeaten at home since April, and José Mourinho's Fenerbahçe, who have suffered just one defeat in their last six home matches.
Looking at the start of the season, it seems that Ten Hag's team has been granted a generous status as the second favourite in the Europa League. With only two wins in five Premier League matches, a heavy defeat to Liverpool, a loss to Brighton & Hove Albion, and sitting in 11th place, the team’s performance raises eyebrows, especially considering they spent over €200 million on reinforcements during the offseason. Nevertheless, the likelihood of the Red Devils missing out on the top eight remains incredibly low.
Naturally, the home draw offers hope to fans. Neither Twente, whom Ten Hag knows well, nor Bodo/Glimt or PAOK can be considered real competitors for Manchester United, even though the Mancunians have yet to face any of them in competition. Their recent preseason match against Rangers ended in a convincing victory.
It's also important to note that the goal drought in Manchester doesn't entirely reflect the true situation. With three goals scored from open play, their xG stands at 8.67, meaning the Red Devils should have scored nearly three times as much. Unsurprisingly, they have the lowest odds for goals on the opening matchday.
However, taking a pessimistic view, it will be quite challenging to win the Europa League with their current style of play. On the other hand, the latest odds for the next manager to be sacked suggest that Erik Ten Hag might be on the way out soon, which could alter the situation.
Roma
Home opponents: Frankfurt, Braga, Dynamo Kiev, Athletic Bilbao
Away opponents: Tottenham, AZ Alkmaar, Union SG, Elfsborg
Roma have thrived in European competitions recently, justifying their position as third favourites for this season's Europa League. They won the Europa Conference League in 2022 and were Europa League runners-up the following year, losing last season's semi-final to Bayer Leverkusen.
Roma share second place for the most semi-final appearances in the Europa League, with three to their name. Notably, whenever they reach the quarter-finals, they have advanced in 100% of cases. From there, the final is just within reach.
The Fortune has not been kind to Roma, pairing them with two of the top five favourites (some bookmakers even rate Ahtletic higher than Porto). If any of their opponents can be considered manageable, it might be Elfsborg, though that match is away.
However, Daniele De Rossi has introduced a more progressive style of play at the club since taking over from José Mourinho midway through last season. Despite a modest position in the middle of the Serie A table, Roma are displaying solid football, having lost only 1 of their last five matches. They concede few goals—only Juventus and Empoli have a better defensive record in Serie A—but when they do, victories become elusive.
Alexis Saelemaekers and Enzo Le Fée are still recovering from injuries, but that didn’t stop the team from ending their winless streak with a confident 3-0 victory over Udinese.
Real Sociedad
Home opponents: Ajax, PAOK, Dynamo Kyiv, Anderlecht
Away opponents: Lazio, Maccabi Tel-Aviv, Viktoria Plzeň, Nice
Real Sociedad never reached a European final, but this could be their year. Retaining Martin Zubimendi, despite Liverpool's interest, was their top move this summer.
They were held to a 0-0 by Real Valladolid in their last match, extending their winless sequence to five matches. They have even failed to score in their last three Europa League matches dating back to March 2023, so Sociedad is definitely on a sticky wicket.
Despite an incredibly tough draw—Ajax, Lazio, and Nice are unlikely to allow anyone to collect more than four points in total—Real Sociedad maintain strong chances against the three other home opponents. It's important to remember that, despite their current struggles, they sit in sixth place in La Liga and won their Champions League group last year.
While they couldn't strengthen their squad during the offseason, the absence of injuries and the presence of key players like Zubimendi and Euro hero Oyarzabal should inspire hope.
In the 15 years since the Europa League's inception, Spanish clubs have established a true hegemony in the tournament, never having a gap of more than one season between victories. The last champions were Atalanta, which statistically boosts the chances for both Real Sociedad and Athletic Bilbao this time around.
Porto
Home opponents: Man United, Hoffenheim, , Olympiacos
Away opponents: Bodo/Glimt, Lazio, Anderlecht, Maccabi Tel-Aviv
With Benfica and Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League, Porto are Portugal's top team in the Europa League this season. Despite losing Brazilian striker Evanilson late in the transfer window, their squad remains strong enough to challenge most opponents.
Porto quickly signed Samu Omorodion from Atletico Madrid, and the 20-year-old is off to a strong start, scoring three goals in his last two matches, including a brace on his full debut against Vitoria SC. He's already forming strong connections with attackers like Galeno, Pepe, and Nico Gonzalez.
Fabio Vieira is nearing full fitness and could soon make his second debut for Porto after rejoining on loan from Arsenal to get more game time and confidence.
Given the tough home matches ahead for the Portuguese teams, it's safe to say that away games won't be easy strolls either. However, they are currently viewed as favourites against each of their opponents.
Porto sit second in the domestic league, having won five of their first six games and averaging two goals per match with a total of 12. Their opening match is away against Bodo/Glimt, who may decide to take the initiative, as they are set up to play attacking football under their boss Kjetil Knutsen. This will be the perfect opportunity for the formidable attack of the visitors to showcase their skills.
The new format of the Europa League.
This year the main changes involve the group stage, which will now include 36 teams. Each team will face eight different opponents (four at home, four away). The top eight teams will advance directly to the Round of 16, while those finishing between ninth and 24th place will compete in a playoff round, with the winners also advancing to the Round of 16. From there, the tournament will follow the usual knockout format.
And of course, as we’ve already mentioned, teams will no longer drop from the Champions League to the Europa League, nor from the Europa League to the Conference League.
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