Verstappen to Lose the Formula 1 Season 2025: Reasons and Betting Odds
The 2025 Formula 1 season is about to begin. And once again, a new record for the longest calendar will be set. Will Ferrari finally deliver with the most expensive driver lineup of Leclerc and Hamilton? Can McLaren defend the Constructors' Championship, and what magic will the genius Adrian Newey work at Aston Martin?
Who will win the F1 Drivers' Championship 2025?
Making predictions based on scarce rumors and preseason testing is a risky business. However, there’s one point we can’t ignore: it seems Max Verstappen’s dominance is coming to an end. Here’s what led us to this conclusion, along with some intriguing betting opportunities currently available.
Red Bull’s Troubles
Over the three days of testing, the Bulls completed the fewest laps of any team. None of Red Bull’s drivers, Max Verstappen nor Liam Lawson, topped a single test session. The RB21 spent a lot of time in the garage as the team made adjustments. Neither Verstappen nor Lawson completed a full race simulation. Even Red Bull’s Technical Director, Pierre Wache, conceded that Ferrari and McLaren have made massive strides over the winter break, with Red Bull potentially falling behind in some areas of performance.
It’s no surprise that Max Verstappen isn’t the outright favorite for the Australian Grand Prix. He’s never been particularly strong at Albert Park: just one win and several DNFs. Last year, he only managed fifth place.
It might be better to look at the Top 2 finish market, where bookmakers, having lost some confidence in Max, are offering some generous odds.
Red Bull’s loss in the Constructors’ Championship in 2024 wasn’t due to bad luck or isolated incidents. The team faced controversies throughout the season, from allegations of sexual misconduct against team principal Christian Horner to the departure of legendary designer Adrian Newey.
Here are just a couple of Newey’s unmatched achievements:
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Adrian Newey is the only designer whose cars have won World Championships with three different teams (Williams, McLaren, Red Bull).
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He designed the Red Bull RB19 (2023): 21 wins out of 22 races in a single season, setting an all-time record for the highest win percentage (95.5%).
On top of this, Red Bull also lost Sergio Pérez and sporting director Jonathan Wheatley during last F1 season. It’s reasonable to assume the team will continue to face turbulence for some time. Bookmakers currently rank them only as the third favorite for the Constructors’ Championship.
In head-to-head comparisons, betting sites see Red Bull as having slim chances against Ferrari and McLaren. Even against Mercedes, their odds aren’t as short as one might expect.
Season Match-up: Red Bull vs Mercedes
Honda’s power unit remains one of the most efficient on the grid. We'll politely skip over the $600,000 penalties for breaching budget caps. However, come 2026, Red Bull will have to transition to entirely in-house resources, further compounding their challenges. To make matters worse, aerodynamic concerns persist. The "zero-pod" design—similar to the one Mercedes struggled with two seasons ago—has proven difficult to optimize and underperformed at certain stages.
Verstappen’s Challenges
And what about Max himself? Yes, he claimed another championship, bringing his total titles equal to Alain Prost and Sebastian Vettel. However, his personal performance fell short of his 2023 results, at least in numerical terms. In percentage terms, it was even lower than 2022. It’s worth noting that the 2024 season set a record for the most races ever—24.
Verstappen’s Comparative Statistics
Year |
Race Wins |
Pole Positions |
Points Scored |
2024 |
9 |
8 |
437 |
2023 |
19 |
12 |
454 |
2022 |
15 |
7 |
416 |
Verstappen is chasing his fifth consecutive title. Before him, only Michael Schumacher had achieved that. But the bookmakers aren’t too confident that Max will even win 10+ races—despite it being the longest season in history.
There are a couple more pieces of less-than-favorable news for Verstappen. Regulatory changes aimed at improving safety don’t align well with his driving style. Adjustments to the mini-DRS system are likely to make overtaking more challenging. Verstappen doesn’t start from pole in every race these days, so he needs to adapt to overtaking—something made trickier by these updates.
Additionally, a new cooling system will likely increase the minimum weight of the car, further complicating matters for Red Bull’s engineers. As one of the three most aggressive drivers last season (with 8 penalty points), Verstappen won't be thrilled with stricter safety rules.
Potential Move
Max is almost guaranteed to remain at Red Bull, with his contract running through 2028. Even his influential father, Jos Verstappen, fully supports his continued association with the team for the 2025 F1 season.
In Short: No Championship with Red Bull, No Verstappen on the Team. But the real question is: can Max win a championship with another team? Rumors link him to two alternatives.
Talking seriously about a title with Aston Martin, even with the arrival of Adrian Newey, feels far-fetched. Meanwhile, Mercedes, mired in a prolonged slump, doesn’t seem much better. Internal competition for the lead driver role is another hurdle—Hamilton, for instance, barely edged out George Russell in their personal rivalry, taking a two-point lead only in the final race.
Only once in the last 10 years have bookmakers been wrong about their F1 pre-season favourite, and in every case, the top favorite has aligned with the reigning champion. The fact that Max has lost his status as the undisputed leader speaks volumes.
Main Competitors
Three out of four Sky Sports experts, including Nico Rosberg, have picked Lando Norris as the favourite for the 2025 season. Last year, he already proved he’s capable of fighting at the very top.
McLaren had the most consistent car throughout 2024, and their new challenger looked frighteningly quick over race distance during testing. Norris gained valuable experience after falling short of stopping Max Verstappen last year.
Meanwhile, seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton’s blockbuster move has created arguably the fastest driver pairing on the grid, teaming up with eight-time race winner and qualifying ace Charles Leclerc. Only a fool would count out Hamilton—who already seems right at home in his new team. However, there’s plenty of potential for fireworks at Ferrari, with neither driver willing to settle for a number two role…
Which Ferrari Driver will win F1 Championship 2025
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