Oscars betting odds 2025: nominations & favourites
With months left before the Oscar shortlists are announced, the season of major festival awards has kicked off: Cannes and Venice are behind us, and it’s time to start considering the world’s top prize. The extended list of contenders for Best Picture is ready. In our article, we highlight the most remarkable films and likely frontrunners, which include a mind-blowing cosmic blockbuster, a dystopia about a new civil war in the U.S., and a Joker transformed into a musical. And of course, we’ll provide early odds and tips for the best bets.
Who will win the next Oscar?
The top contenders sometimes win, sometimes they don't. There's no clear pattern, but one truth remains constant: short favourites get even shorter after the shortlists are announced. For example, last year, odds for “Oppenheimer” halved once the shortlists were released. If you're planning to back the consensus, it's best to do so early..
Oscar — Best Picture Odds
Many are complaining that this year’s crop of major films isn’t as abundant. Last year, we had “Oppenheimer”, “Barbie”, and Scorsese with “Killers of the Flower Moon”. These are the kind of "it used to be better" conversations. Despite the ongoing strikes by writers and actors, we have an incredibly diverse range of genres and big names among the contenders.
When else will you come across a film where an American president is executed against the backdrop of a civil war between Texas and Washington? And this came out just months before the assassination attempt on Donald Trump! Alex Garland's “Civil War” could have been among the top favourites. Nearly half of the nominated films over the past two decades are linked in some way to politics and social conflicts. However, it seems A24 is focusing its campaign on another film, “Sing Sing”, so expectations for “Civil War” may need to be tempered.
Let’s break down what makes each of the main Oscar contenders noteworthy and what weaknesses they might have.
The Brutalist
Generals always prepare for the last war, and bookmakers prepare for the last Oscar ceremony. Last year, Christopher Nolan's historical drama "Oppenheimer" featuring white cisgender intellectual Cillian Murphy in the lead role, swept all possible awards. This year, the lowest odds are on the historical drama "The Brutalist," which tells the story of a white cisgender architect portrayed by intellectual Adrien Brody.
"The Brutalist" has a significant ace up its sleeve: part of the film is dedicated to the Holocaust. This tragedy and the fate of the Jewish people have always resonated with the Academy. Over the past 30 years, two films related to these themes have won the top prize. The most notable is, of course, "Schindler's List" followed, to a lesser extent, by the unexpected black-and-white film "The Artist".
However, the film has a significant drawback: its director. Brady Corbet is indeed a great talent, having won the top prize at Venice twice, but the Academy has consistently overlooked him. There are certain individuals in Hollywood who, for inexplicable reasons, do not appeal to the high jury — Leonardo DiCaprio can attest to this.
Anora
The Oscar almost never goes to similar films two years in a row. Firstly, there are too many different themes that need to be highlighted. Secondly, who would want to kill the intrigue? For these reasons, "The Brutalist" might miss out on the top statue, just like the intriguing biopic about Bob Dylan, starring contemporary star Timothée Chalamet, titled "A Complete Unknown". The Academy had enough of biopics featuring conscientious nuclear scientists last year.
It’s much more likely that the Academy will turn towards something more intimate than a grand, sweeping film. "Anora" directed by Sean Baker (known for “The Florida Project”), tells the story of a young Uzbek-American stripper who enters into a relationship with the son of a Russian oligarch. While it may be too bold for the Oscars, it has already won the Palme d'Or this year.
In recent years, the Academy has shown a fondness for Cannes winners. For instance, everyone remembers the mind-blowing triumph of “Parasite” in 2019, which won several awards, including Best Picture. Interestingly, director Bong Joon-ho might miss the upcoming ceremony due to new release timing rules; his film “Mickey 17”, featuring Robert Pattinson and centred on themes of endless death and resurrection, will premiere in the U.S. a week later than the allowed date.
"Anora" premiered at an incredibly favourable time. Films released between October and December are known to have three times the chance of winning an Oscar compared to those released in the summer or early in the year, as exemplified by “Dune”, which debuted in February. The Academy has a short memory, and impressions tend to fade quickly.
Sing sing
The Oscars often highlight socially relevant issues, particularly racism and the fight for Black rights. Over the past 12 years, one in four awards has gone to films addressing these themes, from “12 Years a Slave” to “Green Book”.
“Sing Sing” focuses on art therapy in prison, emphasising the racial imbalance among inmates. With a cast that is three-quarters Black, it would be surprising if the film doesn’t make it to the shortlist. The combination of its compelling narrative and relevant social commentary positions it well for recognition by the Academy.
Emilia Perez
Since 2008, when films like “Milk” starring Sean Penn garnered multiple major awards, the Oscars have recognized LGBTQ+-themed movies roughly every five years. Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Perez”, a thriller-comedy about a drug lord who transitions to evade law enforcement, is certainly a vibrant contender that captures the current cultural zeitgeist.
This film has gained traction among critics, which can significantly influence its Oscar prospects. For instance, in 2015, despite “Birdman” being overlooked at festivals, its critical acclaim transformed it from an underdog (9/2) into a leading contender (4/5). One of the most prominent advocates for “Emilia Perez” is Scott Mantz, a respected film critic with over 40,000 followers on X (formerly Twitter). He previously headed the San Diego International Film Festival and praised “Emilia Perez” as a "deeply moving experience".
However, there's a notable concern: “Emilia Perez” is also a musical. While American audiences generally enjoy musicals, their success at the Oscars has dwindled since the last century. The only win in the 21st century was for “Chicago” in the early 2000s. “La La Land” came close to winning in 2017 but faced a highly publicised mishap when it was mistakenly announced as the winner, only for “Moonlight” to take the award, leaving the cast with a lasting awkward moment.
Todd Phillips has transformed his second film about the Joker, featuring Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga, into a musical. Despite its ambitious direction, the film experienced a disappointing box office opening, earning only $38 million in its first weekend, which marks the lowest debut for any comic book adaptation. This poor performance has led many to hesitate in placing bets on “Joker: Folie à Deux” as a serious contender in the awards circuit
Dune: Part Two
Those who claim that the Academy Award for Best Picture has no genre are mistaken. Eight out of ten winning films are dramas. However, the new millennium has seen some changes, with science fiction emerging from the shadows, as evidenced by the wins for “The Lord of the Rings” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once”. This trend may inspire hope among fans of the most visually stunning film of the year (and perhaps the decade), “Dune”.
Adapting Frank Herbert's epic work set in a distant future was a daunting task, one that even David Lynch struggled with. Yet Denis Villeneuve managed to create one of the best (and most meaningful) blockbusters in cinematic history. Still, this is no guarantee of an Oscar.
Villeneuve's journey in the film industry closely resembles that of Christopher Nolan. Both are distinguished by their unique styles, signature aesthetics, and the ability to imbue fantastical plots with deep meaning. Nolan burst onto the scene with “Inception” and “Batman”, while Villeneuve boasts works like *Arrival* and the new “Blade Runner”. Nolan waited about ten years for his Oscar, and it’s possible that Villeneuve's "trial period" could take just as long, putting “Dune”'s chances in jeopardy.
It’s also worth noting that the current nominee is a sequel. In Oscar history, only two sequels have won the top prize: “The Godfather Part II” in 1975 and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” in 2004.
For this reason, it would be unwise to place high expectations on “Gladiator 2”. Sir Ridley Scott has been experimenting with genres and trends in recent years, and he has finally decided to return to one of his most commercially and critically successful franchises. The premiere is timed perfectly for the awards season, featuring stars like Pedro Pascal and Denzel Washington. However, Ridley Scott has faced setbacks with ambitious projects lately, as seen with “The Last Duel”.
The Golden Globe as prediction to Oscar
The Golden Globes serve as a significant precursor to the Oscars, especially since they divide their top prize into two categories: Drama and Comedy/Musical. This division adds complexity to Oscar predictions, but combining the winners from both categories reveals a noteworthy correlation: around 40% of Golden Globe winners for Best Motion Picture also win the Oscar for Best Picture.
Films with both Oscar and Golden Globe
|
Film |
Year |
|
Oppenheimer |
2024 |
|
Nomadland |
2021 |
|
Moonlight |
2017 |
|
12 Years a Slave |
2014 |
In other words, any bet with odds of 3/2 or higher should be profitable. However, as we mentioned earlier, it's better to place bets on the favourites early, as bookmakers will quickly adjust the odds.
Early Oscars prediction
Of course, an underdog could also emerge, such as “The Challengers” by the genius and provocateur Luca Guadagnino, starring Zendaya. However, if we're looking at the current favourites, “Anora” seems to be a strong choice. It boasts an intriguing plot that weaves together the lives of migrants, Russian oligarchs, and sex workers. “Anora” benefits from a favourable release window, critical acclaim, and the top prize from Cannes.
Frequently Asked Questions about Oscars 2025
The ceremony is scheduled to take place on March 2, 2025 in Los Angeles.
The main favourite is The Brutalist
You can bet on Oscars on many betting sites, for example Copybet, choosing the respective section.
To place a bet on the Oscars 2025, follow the next steps:
Register and log in to a website or a betting app.
Search for Oscar or go to Specials.
Go to a respective category or find a betting option you need.
Pick the odds you need.
Enter the amount you want to bet in a bet slip and confirm your bet.
Southampton
Liverpool
Ipswich
Manchester Utd
Leganes
Real Madrid
Napoli
Roma
Genoa
Cagliari
