Oscars betting odds 2025: nominations & favourites
Who will win: the stripper, the transgender woman, or the raped architect?
On the night of March 3rd, the 97th Academy Awards ceremony will take place in Los Angeles. Which film has emerged as the frontrunner? How have scandals affected the chances of the most controversial film? We’ll discuss the nominees, top contenders, and, of course, offer the best betting options.
Which Film Will Win the Oscar?
Oscar 2025 — Best Picture Odds
As we predicted, Anora has surged to the top of the bookmakers' lists, while The Brutalist, once considered the leading contender, has dropped to third place.
Top 5 Contenders for Best Picture
Unexpected BAFTA results have reshuffled the Oscar race. Old, controversial tweets resurfacing also played a role. And, surprisingly enough, even U.S.-Russia negotiations on the war in Ukraine have had an impact.
Anora
Sean Baker's film about an Uzbek-American stripper and the son of a Russian oligarch has emerged as the frontrunner in the final weeks before the awards. However, even such low odds have never guaranteed an Oscar victory.
Anora has a habit of surprising. Earlier, it unexpectedly won the top prize at Cannes. In recent years, the Academy has shown a preference for Cannes winners—everyone remembers the stunning triumph of Parasite in 2019.
The film premiered at an incredibly favorable time. Movies released between October and December are three times more likely to win an Oscar compared to those released in the summer or early in the year.
Some of the boldest conspiracy theories claim that Anora's chances have risen due to the U.S.-Russia negotiations in Riyadh. Some see symbolism in this: Russia is emerging from isolation, and the so-called "cancellation" of Russian culture—if it ever truly existed—is fading away.
Conclave
Edward Berger's religious drama about the election of a new Pope has surged into second place. First, the film gained relevance amid news of Pope Francis' deteriorating health.
Second, Conclave won Best Film at the BAFTAs—the last major award before the Oscars. Berger is already well-loved by British filmmakers; they previously honored All Quiet on the Western Front, just as the Golden Globes did. However, that didn’t stop the Oscars from largely ignoring the German director.
The Brutalist
Brady Corbet aimed to replicate Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer formula from last year. The Brutalist is also a historical drama about a genius, a grand-scale film. All year long, starting with the Venice Film Festival, it was considered a top contender—until it suddenly collapsed in the final stretch.
Corbet is undoubtedly a great talent, having won the top prize at Venice twice, but the Academy has consistently overlooked him. Some figures in Hollywood, for reasons unknown, never seem to win over the Academy—just ask Leonardo DiCaprio.
However, The Brutalist has one major advantage: part of the film is dedicated to the Holocaust. This subject and the story of the Jewish people have always resonated with the Academy. Over the past 30 years, two films with such themes have won Best Picture—the most famous being Schindler's List, followed, to a lesser extent, by the surprise black-and-white winner The Artist.
Other Contenders
The odds for all other films are so high that their victory seems virtually impossible. No film with odds above 30/1 has ever won Best Picture when betting markets were set a month before the ceremony.
A Complete Unknown was received warmly by audiences but met with a cold reaction from critics—who, as we know, can sway public opinion. Just look at Birdman, which started as an Oscar outsider before climbing to the top thanks to rave reviews.
Emilia Perez was the second-favorite for the Oscar not long ago. However, with Trump's return and a shift in the U.S. socio-political landscape, a film about a transgender character lost some of its momentum.
Adding to this, old tweets from Carla Sofía Gascón resurfaced, where she seemingly criticized the Black Lives Matter movement. In the end, the film appears to have alienated both liberals and conservatives alike.
Emilia Perez is also a musical. While American audiences generally love musicals, their Oscar success has waned over the years. The only Best Picture winner in the 21st century was Chicago in the early 2000s.
As spectacular as Dune may be, it’s a sequel. Only two sequels have ever won Best Picture: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2004 and The Godfather Part II in 1975.
Best Director Oscar Odds
The Academy often splits the Best Picture and Best Director awards. That’s exactly what happened to Quentin Tarantino when Pulp Fiction missed out on Best Picture.
Realistically, the choice comes down to Corbet or Baker. The boldest and most radical option would be Coralie Fargeat, director of The Substance. Until 2009, no woman had ever won Best Director, but in the past 15 years, it has happened three times.
Top 5 contenders for the Best Director Oscar
Best Actor Oscar Odds
There are three clear contenders: Adrien Brody, who had the most screen time in The Brutalist; Ralph Fiennes, who could receive the statuette as a career achievement; and Timothée Chalamet, who portrayed Bob Dylan.
Interestingly, starring in a biopic is a proven path to winning an Oscar. Over the past 15 years, nine Best Actor awards have gone to performers playing historical figures—starting with Colin Firth and ending with Cillian Murphy.
Best Actress Oscar Odds
After BAFTA awarded Mikey Madison, the odds for Demi Moore's victory slightly increased, but she remains the frontrunner.
Karla Sofia Gascon has already won Best Actress at Cannes for her role in Emilia Perez. However, the Academy's bias against European actresses might influence the final decision. In the 21st century, only one European actress has won the Oscar for Best Actress.
The Golden Globe as prediction to Oscar
The Golden Globes serve as a significant precursor to the Oscars, especially since they divide their top prize into two categories: Drama and Comedy/Musical. This division adds complexity to Oscar predictions, but combining the winners from both categories reveals a noteworthy correlation: around 40% of Golden Globe winners for Best Motion Picture also win the Oscar for Best Picture.
Films with both Oscar and Golden Globe
Film |
Year |
Oppenheimer |
2024 |
Nomadland |
2021 |
Moonlight |
2017 |
12 Years a Slave |
2014 |
In other words, any bet with odds of 3/2 or higher should be profitable. However, as we mentioned earlier, it's better to place bets on the favourites early, as bookmakers will quickly adjust the odds.
Oscars 2025 Prediction
“Anora” seems to be a strong choice. It boasts an intriguing plot that weaves together the lives of migrants, Russian oligarchs, and sex workers. “Anora” benefits from a favourable release window, critical acclaim, and the top prize from Cannes.
However, the "Golden Globe rule" still holds—The Brutalist won the top award. For this reason, we are almost certain that Brody will win the Oscar.
Frequently Asked Questions about Oscars 2025
The ceremony is scheduled to take place on March 2, 2025 in Los Angeles.
The main favourite is Anora.
You can bet on Oscars on many betting sites, for example , choosing the respective section.
To place a bet on the Oscars 2025, follow the next steps:
Register and log in to a website or a betting app.
Search for Oscar or go to Specials.
Go to a respective category or find a betting option you need.
Pick the odds you need.
Enter the amount you want to bet in a bet slip and confirm your bet.
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