Italian Grand Prix 2024: Predictions and Betting odds for the Formula 1 Stage
Lando is getting closer to Max's title.
The Italian Grand Prix will take place from August 30 to September 1 at the Monza circuit. It will be the 17th race of the current season.
So, what bets have bookmakers prepared for the Italian stage? Check out the best odds for the race weekend in our review.
Even after the Belgian Grand Prix, bookmakers shifted Max from his status as the absolute favorite, and it seems they made the right call. Ahead of Monza, analysts also believe that Lando has a much better chance of winning.
2024 Italian Grand Prix Winner Odds
In Zandvoort, Lando not only proved that his car is the fastest on the grid but also humiliated Max by reclaiming his lost position from the start with ease and triumph. And while Verstappen's fans might argue about his tire condition, it’s clear that McLaren was much faster on the straights, leaving Max unable to close the gap in the remaining laps.
At the recent Dutch Grand Prix on August 25, Max Verstappen finished 2nd, while Lando Norris claimed victory.
Betting odds for the Formula 1 Drivers' Championship title
Despite such a radical improvement in the car and a second win of the season, Lando Norris is still far behind Max Verstappen. Even if Norris consistently finishes on the podium for the rest of the season, he would need Verstappen to retire a few times or score minimal points to have a chance at the title. For now, bookmakers find it hard to believe in such a scenario.
In contrast, the mood at Mercedes is far from positive. Lewis Hamilton had a poor qualifying session, received a penalty, and barely made up six positions from the midfield, while George Russell started higher but failed to break into the top three or even hold his fourth place.
There are suspicions that the much-hyped updates to the Mercedes, which were highly anticipated earlier, may have exhausted their potential. It's possible that these races could significantly affect Hamilton's motivation to push to the maximum.
Personal standings for the 2024 season and odds to win
History of the Italian Grand Prix
The first race at Monza took place in 1922, with Italian Pietro Bordino winning in a Fiat. The official start of the Formula 1 era came in 1950 when Nino Farina won in his Alfa Romeo.
The most successful drivers at Monza are Lewis Hamilton (2012, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018) and Michael Schumacher (1996, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2006). Nelson Piquet is next with four victories (1980, 1983, 1986, 1987).
Six drivers share third place with three wins each: Juan Manuel Fangio, Stirling Moss, Ronnie Peterson, Alain Prost, Rubens Barrichello, and Sebastian Vettel.
Among the teams, Ferrari leads with 21 wins. McLaren is in second place with 11 titles, followed by Mercedes with 7 cups.
Norris or Leclerc?
While the theoretical battle for the title may not have much intrigue, the competition between Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc is much more compelling, with only a few dozen points separating them.
Certainly, Leclerc’s retirement in Canada and 14th place in the UK have been setbacks, but he still has several races left to not only catch up to the McLaren driver but also potentially overtake him.
Leclerc himself remains cautious about his car's potential, admitting that he is unsure where the speed came from in the last race, given that it was absent during qualifying.
2024 F1 Constructors’ Championship odds to win
The Constructors' Championship is even more intriguing, with just 30 points separating each of the top three teams. Given Sergio Perez’s underwhelming performance, McLaren drivers have a solid chance to close the gap significantly this weekend.
Italian Grand Prix Prediction
Perhaps the most surprising revelation came from Max Verstappen, who admitted after his home race that the issue wasn’t solely with McLaren's impressive car. According to the champion, his own car struggled with balance throughout the session, and during the race, it experienced a notable drop in both dynamics and top speed.
Adding to the mix is Max's controversial father, Jos, who has harshly criticized the team management, suggesting they don't fully grasp that his son's title could be at risk. It seems the elder Verstappen believes a 200-point lead is necessary to ensure peace of mind.
So, the drop in pace and problems at Red Bull are no longer just behind-the-scenes gossip but a harsh reality. There’s some truth to Jos's words. It seems that Christian Horner is well aware of the numerous mistakes made and is probably too focused on plans for the 2025 season, hoping that Max can continue to secure top points and maintain his title with a minimal gap from his pursuers. And, of course, the Verstappen family is far from satisfied with this situation.
On the other hand, the mood at McLaren is extremely positive. Zak Brown assures journalists that they have also prepared "some tricks" for Monza and expect much greater speed than in Zandvoort. Given the current dynamics of the competitors, there’s a strong suspicion that Lando has every chance not only to make it into the top three but also to claim the Italian trophy.
When to watch | Event |
August 30, 12.30pm on Sky Sports F1 | Practice One |
August 30, 4.00pm on Sky Sports F1 | Practice Two |
August 31, 11.30pm on Sky Sports F1 | Practice Three |
August 31, 3.00pm on Sky Sports F1 | Qualifying |
August 25, 2.00pm on Sky Sports F1 | The Italian Grand Prix |
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