Kane's Curse Will Fall in 2025. Maybe

A holder of several golden boots, the all-time leading scorer for the England national team, a man-goal. All of this is about Harry Kane. Yet he is also one of football's biggest losers, at least in terms of team trophies. He has exactly zero. There are all sorts of theories regarding his bad luck. This year, his bad streak may finally come to an end. We’ll explain why, recall Harry’s arduous journey, and suggest some interesting betting options related to all of this.

In the Champions League, Kane, along with Bayern Munich, has already managed to humiliate Zagreb by scoring four goals and is predictably the top favorite in the list of scorers.

Harry Kane to become Top Goalscorer in Champions League

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3/2

Disregarding any preseason entertainments like the AIA Cup, where Tottenham played (and won!) against the Malaysian national team, Kane has no official trophies. Yes, school certificates are not counted either. But how many times has he come so close!

All the finals lost by Kane

Let’s go through everything in order. When did he bring the curse upon himself? Where did it all begin? And how have his failures varied at different stages of his career?

“You weren't all that great either” (c. In Bruges). The start at Tottenham.

A promising young lad who made a strong impression at Tottenham, becoming the best young player of the 2014/2015 season. What potential! What could possibly go wrong? In the 2015 League Cup final, Tottenham lost to Chelsea 0-2. The first goal was scored by the legendary John Terry. Before the ball went into the net, it was slightly deflected by the young Harry Kane, who came to assist the defenders. But it's not even about the attempted own goal, but rather the subsequent interview.

Researchers of superstitions have noticed two major mistakes on the part of the Spurs star. Firstly, he shouldn’t have claimed that this was the worst thing that could happen. Fate would later show Kane that there are things far more disappointing, literally letting him taste a few Cups before snatching them away at the last moment. Secondly, his overconfident youthful bravado and plans to win the trophy the very next year. Many believe that this is when the curse was activated.

Mathematics or Mysticism?

Now, seriously: while playing for Tottenham, Kane became a Premier League runner-up (again second!), won the Golden Boot three times, and by all statistical laws, he should have become a champion at least once. In the 21st century, there’s a golden rule in the Premier League: if you are the top scorer more than once, you will definitely become a champion. You’ve already guessed who the only exception is.

While we might chuckle at ephemeral concepts like luck, there are clear signs that Kane seems to disappear in decisive matches. Despite his undeniable individual achievements, in finals, he tends to be a liability for the team, having failed to score a single goal. And this is a problem.

Kane's Statistics in Finals

There is a consulting company called Twenty First Group, one of the largest financial-sport analytics firms in the world. By evaluating budgets, expenses, revenues, and other club metrics, they calculate the chances of winning trophies. It’s like xG but with trophies. According to their data, a team with Tottenham's resources from 2013 to 2023 should have won 1.6 trophies. Unfortunately, they ended up with zero.

In the 2021/2022 season, Spurs' chances of winning the Europa Conference League were rated at 30%—an extraordinary coefficient, yet it didn't come through.

A separate pain point is Bayern Munich, where Harry seems to have come last season to collect trophies. According to Twenty First Group, the team was expected to win 1.3 trophies. Their chances of winning the Bundesliga were estimated at 70%, the DFB-Pokal at 49%, and the Champions League at 12%. How the German powerhouse managed to end up without a trophy for the first time in 12 years is baffling. One can’t help but think that Kane is the most expensive black mark in the world. But we’ll get back to Bayern; there are more reasons for optimism than you might think.

Does luck not like the boring?

Harry Kane doesn't drink alcohol, doesn't go to nightclubs, and has been dating his current wife, Katie Goodland, since high school. For a complete picture of the average citizen, he just needs a Labrador dog. Wait, he already has two, named after legendary NFL quarterbacks—Tom Brady and Russell Wilson.

We certainly don’t think there’s anything wrong with that, and we're not hinting at anything, but you do remember who the most decorated footballer in history is, right? That would be Dani Alves, with over 40 trophies and a rather controversial reputation. In recent years, Kane has started to move away from the goody-two-shoes image: he dives under defenders, risking injury, and provokes opponents in the penalty area.

Perhaps this "spice" was missing for him to win one of the few individual awards that have eluded Kane—the Ballon d'Or. Yes, this season he’s not the main favorite (to put it mildly), but Rodri's injury undoubtedly increases his chances. The confusion surrounding the Ballon d'Or rules has perplexed everyone. Sometimes it's awarded for the calendar year, sometimes for the season, and it can be given out in the summer or at the end of the year. One important aspect for Harry Kane is that individual achievements are prioritised first, followed by titles and awards. Maybe they'll award Kane a prize, so to speak, for cumulative merit or as an advance? At least for the fact that the guy is about to break the curse. After all, Messi was awarded after the World Cup in Qatar. Are you ready for the biggest gamble of your lives? The odds are out of this world.

Harry Kane to Win Ballon d'Or

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100/1

England National Team: The Psychological Barrier

Before the Euro 2024 final, Kane admitted he would trade all his individual awards for just one victory with the national team. He would have been better off keeping quiet. All the suffering endured by players and fans came to naught. Even playing as pragmatically as possible, eliminating any risk, Gareth Southgate and his team achieved the impossible—they lost two consecutive Euro finals. Such a feat had never happened before, and it’s unlikely to happen again.

By the way, the national team has a new coach, yet the disappointment remains as consistent as ever. Without a chance of winning the Nations League from League B, Lee Carsley’s team managed to lose to the Greeks, and now they are even questionable favorites in their group, with the odds increasing eightfold.

England to win group 2 League B

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2/5

Harry brings good luck to others

You heard that right. Even if he hasn't had luck winning tournaments and let down chalk bettors last season who wagered that he wouldn't leave without a trophy at odds of 1/10 (yes, those lines existed). However, Kane consistently delivers on bets for his own goals. His cousin Joe can vouch for that.

About 10 years ago, Harry's goal earned his cousin £5,000. Joe placed a Predict Six bet, where players choose six footballers they expect to score over the weekend, with a £10,000 jackpot for correctly predicting all six. Joe selected Jamie Vardy, Odion Ighalo, Yaya Toure, Romelu Lukaku, and Graziano Pelle, but was disappointed with Harry's performance until stoppage time. Luckily, in the 93rd minute, Kane scored during a counterattack for Tottenham. They ended up splitting the £10,000 jackpot with another bettor who also guessed all six scorers, which was still a nice payout.

Bayern Munich - the end of the suffering?

Of course, the timing of Kane's arrival coinciding with Bayern's first trophyless season in years might have been shocking. But a lot has changed. Bayern have a new ambitious coach, and the club is leading the Bundesliga, albeit without a significant gap. In the Champions League, they are setting records for goal-scoring. Kane has already broken several records himself: he became the highest-scoring British player ever to play in Germany and reached 50 goals faster than anyone, surpassing Erling Haaland.

Harry Kane Top Bundesliga Goalscorer

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1/4

Bayern Munich last went trophyless for two consecutive years at the beginning of the 1990s, not winning anything from 1991 to 1993. Kane wasn’t even born then. And it seems that the karma of the Munich team will be stronger.

Bayern Munich to win a trophy

Bundesliga

1/4

Сhampions League

9/1

DFB Pokal

27/20

With such odds, the Red Machine has won the season 90 percent of the time since 2010. If there is a moment when all the stars align for Harry Kane, it's 2025. Let's wish him luck!