Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles: Prediction and Betting Odds on Super Bowl 2025
On the night of February 9th to 10th, Super Bowl LIX will take place. The Philadelphia Eagles will face the Kansas City Chiefs. This match is historic, as it could be the first time a team wins three consecutive Super Bowls. Donald Trump will attend to witness this moment, marking the first time a U.S. president has attended the Super Bowl.
Who Will Win Super Bowl LIX
The game will take place at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. In our article, we cover the pre-match analysis, team news, and, of course, the best betting options.
Super Bowl 2025 Odds
At halftime, recent Grammy winner Kendrick Lamar will perform. Everyone is wondering whether he will sing his biggest hit, Not Like Us—a diss track aimed at Drake. Drawing a parallel, the Chiefs find themselves in Lamar’s role. They are on top, slight favorites, and just one step away from an eternal achievement—three consecutive Super Bowl titles.
Chiefs vs Eagles Betting Odds
Kansas City Chiefs Analysis
The Chiefs entered the playoffs as the AFC's No. 1 seed. According to several bookmakers at the end of January, Kansas City accounted for 12.3% of bets and 16.2% of the total money wagered on winning Super Bowl 59.
This may not be the best Chiefs team, but it's likely the craftiest. Rarely dominant but always resilient, they strung together a series of close wins in 2024. Their success came from clutch stops, lucky bounces, and opponents' mistakes. The victory over the Bills in the AFC Championship, a payback for ruining their perfect season, marked their 15th consecutive win in games decided by seven points or fewer.
Much of the Chiefs' current success is thanks to their head coach. Andy Reid's playoff experience is immense, with a 28-16 record and three Super Bowl wins in 26 seasons. A 2024 AP Coach of the Year finalist, he defied the norm for a back-to-back champion.
Patrick Mahomes is arguably the most talented quarterback in football history. However, by his own standards, this season was far from ideal. He ranked eighth with a 68 QBR in the regular season, and Kansas City's offensive line remains a concern—Mahomes was the most sacked QB this season.
Still, he adapted by releasing the ball faster. Despite the pressure, he hasn’t thrown an interception since mid-November against Buffalo. And, of course, postseason Mahomes is simply different. His 79 QBR ranks third in the playoffs, and his career postseason QBR is roughly 10 points higher than in the regular season.
Philadelphia Eagles Analysis
Philadelphia’s biggest drop in Super Bowl odds during the postseason came after the divisional round. Before those games, their implied probability of winning was 20%. However, after their victory over the Rams and the Commanders’ surprise win over the Lions, the Eagles’ chances fell to 35.7% and now stand at 47.6%.
The Eagles have lost just three games all season, two of which came down to dropped passes that could have sealed wins. Since Week 5, they’ve gone 15-1 with a +27 turnover margin, winning by an average of 13.8 points.
This Eagles squad is stronger than the one Kansas City beat in Super Bowl LVII and better than the 49ers teams the Chiefs defeated in Super Bowls LIV and LVIII. They’re even more formidable than Brady’s Buccaneers, the only team to hand Mahomes a Super Bowl loss.
Now, onto their biggest weapon—Jalen Hurts. He ranks second in total EPA (58) on runs and scrambles, even before the postseason. His EPA on runs with 2+ yards to go (37) is the third-best, trailing only Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen. Hurts has scored a rushing touchdown in 12 different games this season and is the clear go-to option at the goal line.
Super Bowl LIX Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
If the Eagles avoid falling behind early, they should control the game with their running attack. However, if they are forced to rely on the passing game, it could be problematic. A.J. Brown presents matchup challenges for Kansas City, and Saquon Barkley is a threat to any defense.
While betting against Patrick Mahomes is always risky and the Chiefs thrive in close games, Philadelphia is the more balanced team. It will be a tight contest, but the Eagles win by a field goal.
There are two possible paths to victory for Philadelphia in Super Bowl 59:
Kansas City scores 20 points or fewer. This season, the Eagles are undefeated (13-0) when holding opponents under that mark.
The Eagles rush for at least 212 yards. This season, Philadelphia is unbeaten in such games (6-0).
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