Makhachev vs Poirier: betting odds & prediction

The current UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev is to defend his title against #4 in the UFC lightweight rankings Dustin Poirier. The bout is scheduled to take place in the main event of UFC 302 on June 1, 2024 at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, United States.

Below you will find a prediction for the fight Poirier vs Makhachev, odds, betting options, statistics and review of the chances of the fighters to win.

Who will win – Makhachev or Poirie?

The main card fights are scheduled to start on June 2 at about 4 am UK time.

Makhachev vs Poirier odds

After Makhachev beat Volkanovski on two consecutive occasions, the odds on him to win his next fight are too low. You can bet on Islam Makhachev to win at 1/5 .

Makhachev vs Poirier betting odds


Makhachev to win odds

Poirier to win odds

CopyBet 19/20 17/20
StarSports 9/10 4/5
10bet 17/20 9/10
Hollywoodbets 9/10 4/5
Unibet 9/10 9/10

The chances of Poirier to win the fight remain low even after he beat Saint Denis. He missed too many punches in that bout and he wasn’t as confident as he used to be. You can bet on Poirier to win at 33/10 .

Statistics and Physical Data

Islam Makhachev has a small advantage in height, while Poirier has an advantage in reach.

Islam Makhachev
Dustin Poirier
26 Fights 39
25 Wins 30
1 Defeats 8
0 Draws / NC's 1
178 Height 175
179 Reach 185
70.3 Weight 70.8
32 Age 35

Islam Makhachev

  • Current UFC Lightweight Champion. Russian National Champion in combat sambo. Combat sambo world champion. 2 UFC Fight of the Night awards and 1 Performance of the Night award.
  • 26 fights, 25 wins, 1 defeat.
Even though Arman Tsarukyan beat Oliveira, a chance to get the title is given to Dustin Poirier. He hasn’t had a long winning run for quite a long time.

However, Dustin Poirier seems to be a more convenient opponent for Makhachev as Arman Tsarukyan is in perfect form. Besides, based on Nurmagomedov’s experience, Makhacchev will get all the information he needs while preparing for the fight.

What to Expect from Makhachev in the Fight against Poirier?

Islam is definitely not about to check his boxing experience right from the start. His previous fights have taught him to build his work from defence. Makhachev will wait for Poirier to get closer in the first round.

However, despite not using boxing punches, Islam will use low and middle kicks. To make Dustin exhausted as soon as possible. Poirier hasn’t had perfect stamina for many years.

The very first moment Poirier makes a mistake while getting closer to his opponent, Makhachev will bring Dustin to the ground.

Makhachev's Chances of Winning

Makhachev is not to rush even in ground fighting. If he realises that he can’t make a submission the first time the fighters go to ground fighting, Islam will not waste his strengths.

Instead, Islam will make a lot of pressure while they’re on the ground to make Dustin waste a lot of oxygen, trying to get back on his feet.

Makhachev will start to use his boxing skills when they’re up from the ground. He will try to make Dustin get back to the ground again. Then Islam will have a chance to end the fight.

Islam Makhachev's Last 5 Fights

Date Opponent Result Method
October 21, 2023 Alexander Volkanovski Won K.O.
February 12, 2023 Alexander Volkanovski


Unanimous decision
October 22, 2022 Charles Oliveira


February 26, 2022 Bobby Green


October 30, 2021 Dan Hooker



Dustin Poirier

  • Ex SFC Featherweight Champion. Judo black belt. 2 UFC Performance of the Night awards and 1 Fight of the Night award.
  • 39 fights, 30 wins, 8 defeats, 1 no contest

Many commentators and analysts talk about Poirie getting back to what he used to be after his fight against Saint Denis. Dustin failed his bout against Gaethje, but many believe that the fight versus Saint Denis is an example of the perfect way of fixing mistakes.

However, Dustin still seemed chaotic. He only managed to break an aggressive opponent only because of Poirier’s experience and good boxing skills. It wasn’t about good physical conditions and perfect game plan, though.

Probably, only punching skills will not be enough to stop Makhachev.

What to Expect from Poirier in the Fight against Makhachev?

Dustin realises that a long start is an advantage for Makhachev. Islam is ready to wait until late moments of the bout, avoiding punches.

Poirie will start aggressively this time. He will try to reach Makhachev with his punches.

Dustin will have to do his best and to make many punches and either get to the neck of the Russian fighter or break him with a knee.

Poirier's Chances of Winning

It’s hard to disagree with the odds provided by the bookmakers this time. Difficult fight against Gaethje and a lot of missed punches in the bout versus Saint Denis prove that Poirier is losing his form. I guess, in the next 2 fights it will go downward spiral.

Poirier has various punching options, he has some stamina and motivation. However, even his fans admit that they haven’t seen any tactical progress.

Dustin can beat some average opponents due to the advantages mentioned above. However, everyone understands that he will lose almost half of his strengths after a couple of minutes of ground fighting with Islam Makhachev. Dustin will try to keep the defense but it won’t help him eventually.

Dustin Poirier's Last 5 Fights

Date Opponent Result Method
March 9, 2024 Benoît Saint Denis Won K.O.
July 29, 2023 Justin Gaethje


November 12, 2022 Michael Chandler


December 11, 2021 Charles Oliveira


July 10, 2021 Conor McGregor



Makhachev vs. Poirier  Prediction

Islam has an advantage in speed, stamina, defence, controlling the situation during the ground fighting. This is clear. Let’s try to find some strong sides of Poirier.

Dustin has often been able to punch even in severely complicated situations. His boxing skills are interesting. However, Islam’s defending skills have become better in the last 2-3 years and they may even become better prior to this bout.

Poirie has after all one interesting skill, which is a counter guillotine. We have seen a lot of times when he locks the necks of those who bring him to the ground fighting. Even Nurmagomedov was trapped like that. So, besides punches, Poirie can surprise his opponents with this skill. Islam should be 100% prepared for this.

However, Makhachev is supposed to survive all the things Poirier can offer. Islam will control the ground fighting and he won’t suffer any serious damage in the first 2-3 rounds. Islam will end the fight in the late moments. I don’t think that this bout will end quickly.

My prediction is Makhachev to win.