NBA Odds 2025: Finals MVP and Champion Prediction
The NBA Playoffs are underway, and while the Lakers opened with a loss, they remain one of the top three contenders in the West. Still, according to the oddsmakers, neither they nor the Eastern frontrunners — the Celtics — are seen as threats to the Oklahoma City Thunder, whose star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is already being touted as a Finals MVP-in-waiting.
NBA Finals MVP:
2025 NBA MVP Odds
Bookmakers have built quite a reputation for predicting the Finals MVP — missing the mark just once in the past five years. Ironically, that one miss came last season when they favored Jaylen Brown, but the award ultimately went to Jayson Tatum.
Top 5 Contenders
Gilgeous-Alexander: The Clear-Cut Favorite
This season, the league’s brightest star on its best team is front and center. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander powered the NBA’s youngest roster to an eye-popping 68-win season, averaging 32.7 points on 51.9% shooting — all while leading the league in 20, 30, 40, and 50-point games. Remarkably, despite his sky-high usage, he recorded the lowest turnover rate in the last 20 years.
But it’s his elite two-way presence that sets him apart. As a defensive anchor for the league’s top-rated defense, Gilgeous-Alexander topped the NBA in both total and defensive win shares, while ranking among the top five in steals.
Tatum & Brown: Solid Backups
Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have a shot — only because Boston is widely expected to reach the Finals. The Celtics are clear favorites to win the Eastern Conference, and no team in the league has shorter odds to make it that far.
Still, Tatum’s track record gives reason for pause. His efficiency tends to dip come playoff time — a concerning trend for a team with title aspirations. On top of that, no team has successfully defended a title since the Warriors in 2018, making any Celtics MVP bet a gamble.
As for Brown, the odds are stacked even higher. Only ten players in NBA history have won Finals MVP more than once — and even fewer managed to do it back-to-back.
Finals MVP
Mitchell & Curry: Wishful Thinking?
Maybe “wasted money” is a bit harsh. But no matter how brilliant Donovan Mitchell or Stephen Curry have been this season, can we realistically picture Cleveland or Golden State making the Finals?
A more logical play might be backing them for Conference MVP honors. Curry’s odds are longer, and with Golden State’s inconsistency, it’s a tougher sell.
Mitchell’s path is more plausible, and his odds reflect that.
Why not Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
If Gilgeous-Alexander does take home the regular season MVP — which most projections suggest he will — history becomes his biggest obstacle. No player has won both the regular season and Finals MVP in the same year since LeBron James pulled it off in 2013. In fact, it's only happened 15 times in NBA history.
Could a Finals MVP come from the losing team? Technically, yes. But in reality? Don’t count on it. It’s only happened once — way back in 1969, when Jerry West won the award despite the Lakers losing to the Celtics. Why are we bringing that up? Well… that’ll become clear in the next chapter.
NBA Playoff Odds
Who has the best shot at winning the championship? And who’s likely to make it to the Finals?
Odds to Win NBA Title
The bookmakers' favorites are the Oklahoma City Thunder.They’re anchored by one of the elite defensive squads in today’s game and powered on offense by the current frontrunner in the NBA MVP race. But despite locking up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference for the second year in a row, their limited playoff achievements so far are making some bettors cautious.
The Boston Celtics, back in familiar territory after two Finals appearances in the last three years, remain strong contenders despite the Cavaliers' better regular-season record. With a steady core, a more experienced Tatum and Brown, and a healthy Porzingis, few teams match their depth. They've dominated top Eastern seeds and open the playoffs against Orlando, a team they've beaten 13 times in their last 19 meetings.
Top 4 NBA Contenders
In the past 10 years, bookmakers have correctly predicted the NBA champion at the start of the playoffs only three times. That said, the gap between Oklahoma City and Boston is slim.
NBA Western Conference Odds
Bookmakers aren't buying into any real competition in the West, offering incredibly tempting odds on OKC’s rivals. Meanwhile, Fox Sports analysts are seriously backing the Lakers to make the Finals.
James is no stranger to deep playoff runs, with four titles and 10 Finals appearances — eight straight from 2011 to 2018. Doncic led Dallas to the Finals just last year, only for the team to stun everyone by trading him at his peak to a rival in February.
Top 3 Contenders to Win Western Conference
NBA Eastern Conference Odds
In the East, the Celtics’ proven duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is expected to edge out the less experienced Cavaliers. Despite Cleveland’s impressive 56-win season, their core lacks postseason chemistry. Meanwhile, Tatum and Brown have played over 100 playoff games together, reached six Conference Finals, and made two trips to the NBA Finals — a level of experience few can match.
Top 3 Contenders to Win Eastern Conference
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