Next Pope Betting Odds
This weekend, the world said goodbye to Pope Francis. A reformist pontiff, known as the "Pope for the poor" due to his focus on social issues, he had arranged for his funeral to be simple and not extravagant in advance. For instance, for the first time, the deceased Pope's body was placed in a single coffin instead of three.
Who Will Be The Next Pope?
On May 7, a Conclave will gather in the Vatican to elect a new head of the Catholic Church. Why is this election considered the most unpredictable in history? What are the chances for cardinals from Africa and Asia? Who are the favorites according to bookmakers? We will cover all of this and offer the best betting options.
Next Pope Odds
As the Italian saying goes: “He who enters the conclave as a pope leaves as a cardinal.” Elections are highly unpredictable. Looking at the last 10 conclaves, the bookmakers' top favorite has won only three times. The most recent example was Benedict XVI's victory in 2005 with odds of 2/1. However, dark horses with odds of 25/1 or higher win much more often.
Top 5 Pope Contenders
With 80% of the cardinals appointed by Pope Francis himself, most will be voting for the first time, offering a wider global perspective. For the first time, less than half are European. The electors defy simple labels of "progressive" or "traditionalist," making the outcome harder than ever to predict.
Who were the last 10 Popes? Seven of them were Italians, with one from Poland, one from Germany, and one from Argentina. The average age was 65.9.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Nationality: Italian
Age: 70
Cardinal Parolin, Pope Francis' former secretary of state and top adviser, is seen as a leading candidate. A seasoned diplomat with a global outlook, he is praised for his pragmatic approach but criticised by some for prioritising diplomacy over strict doctrinal purity.
Although Italians have historically dominated the papacy, with 213 of 266 popes, the Church’s shift away from Europe suggests an Italian successor remains unlikely.
He effectively served as Pope Francis' deputy and holds views that are generally moderately conservative. He has criticised the global legalisation of same-sex marriage, and this is how he described Ireland’s landmark 2015 referendum:
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
Nationality: Filipino
Age: 67
Cardinal Tagle, a leading figure in the Philippine Church where Catholicism is deeply rooted, is often seen as a potential bridge between tradition and a more compassionate approach.
Dubbed the "Asian Francis" for his focus on social justice and migrants, he is considered a moderate voice. While firmly opposing abortion and euthanasia, he has urged the Church to show greater empathy towards gay people, divorcees, and single mothers.
Mentioned as a possible papal contender since 2013, Tagle once laughed off speculation, saying:
There has never been a Pope from Asia in the history of the Vatican. And there hasn't been an African Pope for 1,500 years (this is relevant to several of the upcoming candidacies).
Cardinal Peter Turkson
Nationality: Ghanaian
Age: 76
Cardinal Turkson, a prominent figure, could become as mentioned the first African pope in 1,500 years. Though he has expressed reluctance to take the role, he has been considered a papal candidate since 2013, with bookmakers once naming him the favorite.
The first Ghanaian cardinal, he has a dynamic presence and is known for his conservative views, though he opposes criminalising homosexuality. He also cautioned against choosing the pope based on Church growth statistics in Africa.
Despite controversy over his 2012 comments on Islam, he remains influential within the Church.
Cardinal Robert Sarah
Nationality: Guinean
Age: 79
Cardinal Sarah, a respected figure among conservatives, is known for his commitment to traditional liturgy and Church doctrine. Appointed archbishop at 34 by Pope John Paul II, he became the youngest in his role. He had a distinguished career, retiring in 2021 as the head of the Vatican's office overseeing liturgical rites.
Though not a favorite for the papacy, his conservative views could rally significant support from like-minded cardinals.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Nationality: Italian
Age: 60
Cardinal Pizzaballa, ordained at 25, has lived in Jerusalem since then. Appointed Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem by Pope Francis, he later became a cardinal. Known for his deep insight into Israeli-Palestinian issues and the Gaza conflict, he has called Jerusalem "the heart of the life of this world."
Though respected, his relatively young age and limited experience as a cardinal, as well as his close ties to Francis, may hinder his chances, especially among those seeking a shift in direction.
A promising dark horse - Cardinal Peter Erdo
Nationality: Hungarian
Age: 72
Cardinal Peter Erdo, a key figure in the European Church, served as head of the Council of European Bishops' Conferences from 2006 to 2016. Archbishop of Budapest, he is a respected compromise candidate with strong ties to African cardinals and the Orthodox Church.
Erdo played a significant role in Pope Francis's visits to Hungary in 2021 and 2023 and participated in the conclaves that elected both Francis and Benedict XVI. His conservative views on family issues have earned him support, though his stance on migration, particularly during the 2015 crisis, has sparked controversy.
A European, but not Italian. Not too young and not too old. Conservative, yet open to dialogue with distant continents and denominations. Erdo appears to be the ideal compromise candidate, with odds slightly lower than those of a typical dark horse.
How the elections take place
When a Pope dies or resigns, the College of Cardinals gathers in a conclave to elect a new Pope. Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote. The election takes place in the Sistine Chapel, where each cardinal casts a vote in secret. A candidate needs a two-thirds majority to be elected. If no one receives enough votes, the cardinals continue to vote until a Pope is chosen. When a new Pope is elected, white smoke is released from the Sistine Chapel chimney to announce the result. The new Pope then appears on the balcony to greet the public.
In the last 10 papal elections, the average number of votes required was approximately 4 ballots.
Number of Ballots Needed to elect the new Pope
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