Next Tory Leader Odds: The 6 Main Contenders
Who will replace the outgoing Rishi Sunak?
The first voting for the new Conservative leader is finished, with the final results to be announced in early November after the election involving all the Party members.
During the interim elections, the number of candidates will first be reduced to four, and then to two. The departure of the current party leader and Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is linked to what some are calling the biggest political upheaval since Brexit. In July, the Tories suffered their most crushing defeat in history during the general elections, losing two-thirds of their seats in Parliament and, for the first time in 14 years, ceding control to Labour. In this article, we will discuss the main candidates to succeed Rishi Sunak, the odds for the next Conservative leader, and suggest some betting options.
New Tory Leader Odds
After five Conservative Prime Ministers in less than 15 years, the Tories find themselves in a deep crisis, with the most recent echoes being the racist and anti-Muslim riots, particularly in Southport, Liverpool, and Hartlepool. Below is a table of politicians who, according to the Party, will not only help voters forget about the D-Day and betting scandals associated with Sunak but also offer current solutions to longstanding issues with immigration and the national debt.
Conservative Leadership Candidates
According to bookies, two candidates are considered to have the highest and almost equal chances of winning the conservative election. After the first stage the former immigration minister Robert Jenrick topped the poll of MPs with 28 votes followed by Kemi Badenoch with 22 votes. Given the electorate's apathy - more than half of those surveyed by Ipsos Group stated they don't care who becomes the new Conservative leader - dramatic changes in the new Tory leader odds seem unlikely.
Robert Jenrick
Jenrick was known as one of Rishi Sunak’s closest allies in politics and served as his immigration minister. However, he resigned from the cabinet last year, arguing that the Rwanda immigration plan was ineffective. Shifting rightward, Jenrick has promised to attempt to regain voters from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
While Badenoch’s platform centres on private enterprise, Jenrick focuses on immigration issues. He has advocated for Britain to leave the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) and to cap net migration at 100,000.
His supporters include East Wiltshire MP Danny Kruger, a prominent figure on the Tory Right, Common Sense Group Chair John Hayes, Shadow Health Minister Caroline Johnson, and MP for the Wrekin Mark Pritchard.
Jenrick leads in recent Conservative Party member polls with 36 percent support.
Kemi Badenoch
The North West Essex MP’s combative style has earned her numerous adversaries, which is typically something Tory leadership contenders need to avoid. However, in times of upheaval, when voters are looking for radical changes, Badenoch's uncompromising stance may actually be an advantage. She has prior experience running for the top position, having competed in the 2022 leadership race after Boris Johnson was dramatically ousted by his colleagues, where she finished in fourth place.
While many candidates have focused on uniting the party, Badenoch argues that this is insufficient. "What are we uniting around? What are we winning for?" she wrote for The Times. The former business secretary, now the Tory shadow communities secretary, has emphasised that defending free enterprise will be central to her campaign.
Her support comes from MP backers such as shadow science secretary Andrew Griffith and shadow energy minister Andrew Bowie. In recent general public multi-candidate polls, she was in third place, trailing the leaders by just 1 and 2 percent respectively. However, in the latest surveys by The Telegraph among Conservative Party members, she holds a solid second place, again with only a 1-percent deficit.
James Cleverly
The former Home Secretary, who currently holds a similar position in the shadow cabinet, was the first to announce his candidacy, promising to address divisions within the Conservative Party. Cleverly brings a wealth of experience, having previously served as Foreign Secretary and Tory Party Chairman, in addition to his tenure as Home Secretary.
As one of the more effective communicators in the shadow cabinet, Cleverly advocates for increasing defence spending to 3 percent of GDP and constructing more homes in densely populated areas. However, his reputation for making controversial comments could potentially impact his prospects.
His supporters include Peter Fortune, MP for Bromley and Biggin Hill, and Simon Hoare, MP for North Dorset. While Cleverly initially led in general public polls, his position has since declined slightly. According to The Telegraph, he is currently the third most popular candidate among Conservative Party members.
Tom Tugendhat
Tom Tugendhat, who served as Security Minister under both Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss, is a prominent member of the centrist One Nation caucus and is viewed as a leading moderate within the Tory party. He ran for Prime Minister in 2022, finishing fifth. Tugendhat has a decade of military experience and entered Parliament in 2015, where he spent five years chairing the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee.
Although he is positioned as a centrist and moderate Tory, Tugendhat, like Robert Jenrick, has not ruled out the possibility of exiting the ECHR while also highlighting his record on tax and China.
His supporters include former Cabinet minister Dame Karen Bradley and newly-elected Tory MPs Patrick Spencer and Dr. Neil Shastri-Hurst. Tugendhat enjoyed strong support among party members in mid-August, but his ratings declined by 4 percentage points by the end of the month, placing him fourth. Among the general public, he is as popular as James Cleverly, with 6 percent, according to Opinium.
Mel Stride
Formerly the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Mel Stride has entered the Tory leadership race as an unexpected contender. He first joined Parliament in 2010 and chaired the Treasury Select Committee for three years, a role he believes equips him to challenge Labour on economic issues.
As a centrist candidate, Stride is positioning himself as a unifying force capable of preventing the party from descending into internal conflicts. Unlike Patel, he adopts a less aggressive stance on party reform. However, his prospects may be limited due to his narrow margin of victory in his Central Devon seat, which was secured by just 61 votes. This leaves him vulnerable to a strong challenge from Labour in the next election.
Stride is supported by MPs Sir Desmond Swayne and Mark Garnier. According to most polls, both among party members and the general public, Stride is the least popular candidate, with his ratings failing to exceed 4 percent.
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