Not Celtic, not Rangers. Odds for Aberdeen to become the first alternative Scottish champion in 39 years

“Better players, better manager, better team” – Rangers legend Kris Boyd did not mince words in a Sky Sports studio broadcast, refusing to make excuses for his former club after their recent 2-1 defeat to Aberdeen. The Dons are not just the season’s main sensation but the biggest story in nearly 40 seasons. 

Aberdeen to win the Premiership

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Aberdeen Odds to Win the Premiership

The Dons share the Premiership’s top spot with Celtic and are poised to break the longest dual-team dominance streak in modern football. Some bookmakers have slashed their odds for Aberdeen by six times since the first round. How did this happen, and where should you place your bets now? We cover it all in our overview.

Aberdeen to win the 2024-25 Premiership Odds

In the Bundesliga, there are Bayern; in Serie A, Juventus; Real Madrid and Barcelona have practically monopolized La Liga’s throne, and in Norway, Rosenborg once went on a spree, winning 13 titles in a row. But the situation in Scotland is something else entirely. For 38 years, Celtic and Rangers haven’t let anyone else near the country’s top prize.

For perspective, 38 years is also the age of a modern music superstar—and the worst forecaster of our time — rapper Drake. That means one or even two generations have grown up without knowing that, theoretically, a third team could win the national championship.

Top 5 Most Successful Scottish Clubs

But that’s within the country. Aberdeen are the only Scottish team to have won two European trophies—the European Cup Winners’ Cup and the European Super Cup, both in 1983. Fittingly, The Dons were the last team to win the league before Celtic and Rangers’ era of dual dominance. Who better to break the tradition?

Value Bets on Aberdeen

A year ago, Aberdeen lost in the Cup to Darvel from the West of Scotland League Premier Division. To grasp the level of embarrassment, there was a 56-place gap between the teams on the SPFL league ladder. All Dons fans were shocked—except a certain Darren Mackie. He had placed an accumulator bet picking Darvel as the winner. The kicker? He did it by accident, pressing the wrong button, with odds at 33/1. In the end, he won £833. He was slightly saddened by Aberdeen’s loss, as he’d been a fan since childhood, but he promised to spend his winnings at a strip club. Hopefully, he was happy. Incidentally, Aberdeen are the third favorite in this year’s Cup, starting from the fourth round.

Aberdeen to Win Scottish Cup

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If by chance someone, again by mistake (what other reason could there be?), decided to bet on Aberdeen's victory in every match after a dismal last season, they could have already made around £200 just from flat bets of £5.

Thelin Is the New Ferguson

In the 1980s, the team was led by a strict fellow who loved chewing gum, the then-not-yet-Sir Alex Ferguson. During his eight years in charge, Aberdeen won more trophies than in their entire century-long history. Now they have a bold, talented, and very promising coach in Swedish Jimmy Thelin. He specializes in toppling authorities. Last season, he nearly dethroned the entrenched Malmö with Elfsborg, losing in the Golden Match.

By the way, Sir Alex personally watched Aberdeen’s determined (and only draw of the season) against Celtic (2-2) from the stands. He then met with Thelin and, as the Swede recounted, offered a few pieces of advice—not sports-related, but rather general life wisdom.

Thelin took charge of Aberdeen in the summer and has since accomplished something incredible with the team. They have not suffered a single defeat in all competitions, with a winning percentage approaching 95. In the league, they trail Celtic only on goal difference. Aberdeen have already reached the semi-finals of the League Cup, where they are considered the third favorite to win. Last season, they were heartbreakingly defeated by Rangers in the final (1-0). Given how Aberdeen have rolled over their tormentors this season and have not backed down against Celtic, the odds on them seem inflated.

Aberdeen to Win League Cup 2024-25

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Former players from Elfsborg say that Thelin is a great motivator who knows how to connect with everyone. He also doesn’t care who the next opponent is—whether it's a second-division club or Real Madrid. How else can you explain that he competes evenly against teams whose total player value exceeds Aberdeen's by tenfold? According to Transfermarkt, the valuation is approximately €15 million for The Dons, €125 million for Celtic, and €80 million for Rangers.

However, having spent about ten times less on transfers than Rangers, Aberdeen have clearly managed their money more wisely than their competitors. Additionally, since 2023, they have Pape Habib Guèye, the top scorer of the season. The statistics should inspire optimism among Aberdeen fans. In the 21st century, having the league's top scorer on the team is practically a 50% guarantee of winning the championship. Over the past 24 years, the leading scorer has been on the championship-winning side every two years. Pape Habib Guèye scores every other game but will be unavailable until the end of January due to injury. As a result, his odds have spiked—perhaps excessively so.

Pape Habib Guèye Top Premiership Goalscorer

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Now the main attacking force is Ester Sokler. He has already scored against Celtic this season.

Ester Sokler to Score Anytime against Celtic in League Cup

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Historical Trends Not in Favor of the Red Team

The Premiership is not for newcomers, and the statistics are unlikely to please Jimmy Thelin. While we remember the successes of Martin O'Neill and Brendan Rodgers, those are the only achievements of debutants in the last 40 years. In numerical terms, this amounts to less than 10 percent of coaches winning the championship in their first season.

The situation is slightly better for foreign coaches. A non-British manager wins the Premiership on average every 10 years during the Old Firm's dominance. The last lucky one was Ange Postecoglou in the 2021-22 season.

Another unpleasant factor is that in the mid-2010s, Aberdeen played the role of Tottenham, finishing second four times in a row. This also includes last year's failure in the League Cup final. The psychological barrier and the "eternal second" complex may once again play a cruel joke on the team, especially since Thelin himself still carries the weight of missing out on the championship in Sweden.

To win the championship, usually around 85-95 points are required. At their current pace, Aberdeen will exceed average performance levels. The problem is that they are not the only ones performing well this season. History shows that when it comes to a showdown between two leaders, Thelin and Aberdeen tend to falter.

Phenomenon or Foregone Conclusion?

Aberdeen and Celtic are so closely matched that it brings to mind the 2002-03 season. Back then, two teams (guess which ones) finished with the same number of points, and the championship was decided by a single goal. The team from Granite City has a tough challenge ahead, as Celtic currently surpass them by more than two times in goal difference.

But this season's Aberdeen are capable of miracles, as we've seen. They have already defeated half of the clubs that finished above them last season. And, of course, their main trump card is their unconventional coach, Jimmy Thelin. He is the first Swede in English and Scottish football since Sven-Göran Eriksson in the early 2000s. He not only defies authority but also employs astonishing tactical innovations, shining with a squad that has hardly changed since last year's failure.

Finally, Aberdeen are no strangers to winning from the underdog position. In the distant 1984-85 season, their odds were nearly twice as high as Rangers'. With such high odds as seen now on Aberdeen (even after their recent drop), no team has won in the last 40 years. But everything has to end sometime. Sir Alex Ferguson, who recently lost his status as an ambassador for Manchester United, could tell Jimmy Thelin this as well.