Premier League Betting: Top Teams and Profits

How much do punters earn from outright bets on City, Leicester, or Ipswich?

Approximately a third of the Premier League season is behind us, and the balance of power has shifted, becoming more evident. Liverpool are firmly in the lead. Over the last 20 years, the team leading the standings after 11 matchdays has gone on to win the title in 50% of cases.

Liverpool to Win Premier League

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5/4

Arne Slot’s squad has dethroned Manchester City, the undisputed preseason favourites, from the top of the bookmakers' rankings. Odds on the Cityzens have surged from 11/10 to 9/4. Let’s dive into whether betting on championship outcomes in advance is truly profitable. We’ll also explore who British punters prefer to back, revisit some of the biggest payouts, and suggest the most lucrative bets currently available.

Betting on Favourites

It’s clear that bookmakers have a better understanding of football than the average punter. Liverpool, initially ranked as the third favourite with odds only slightly longer than Arsenal’s, attracted bets from just under 7% of punters. Surprisingly, more bettors “backed” Manchester United than the Merseyside club.

Preseason Bets on Bet365

It’s easy to understand the appeal of backing the consensus top choice. Over the past five years, Manchester City, the perennial preseason favourite, have disappointed only once. However, the odds are often so minimal that it raises the question: was it worth waiting an entire season for such a modest return? Flat betting on City to win the title over the last four seasons would have turned £10 per season into just £26 total.

Manchester City to Win Premier League

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By the way, Betfred responded to our inquiry, confirming that City remains the most popular option for outright winner bets.

Of course, favourites aren’t always as clearly defined as they have been in the last five years. On average, in the 21st century, the odds for the leading favorite have ranged from 3/5 to 3/2. However, these favourites have only won about 30% of the time. In other words, if you had bet £10 on the main favourite each season over the past 20 years, you would have ended up with a loss of around £90–£100.

Betting on Underdogs

What about the biggest preseason betting enigma—Ipswich? More bets were placed on them than on Aston Villa, Newcastle, and Tottenham. Now, the team is fighting for survival, and a second Cinderella story has not materialised. However, Leicester’s 2016 triumph at 5000/1 odds still lingers in many punters' minds as a source of hope.

The Biggest Payouts on Leicester's Title Win

Starting from the inception of the Premier League in the 1992-93 season, the throne has been occupied by the "big five": Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool. There have only been two exceptions to this rule: Blackburn in 1995 and the unforgettable Leicester in 2016. In other words, an outsider becomes champion once every 16 years. It would be nice to know which outsider it will be next!

A much more reliable strategy is betting on a top-4 finish. The "worst" representative of our big five, Liverpool, has finished in the top 4 every other season in the 21st century. As for the best, Manchester United, thanks to Sir Alex Ferguson's era, has been in the top four in about 67% of seasons. After the disgrace of last season, by the way, the odds on them have increased.

Man United Top 4 Finish Premier League

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6/1

Betting as a Show of Loyalty

For many, betting is less about profit and more about showing loyalty to their hometown, region, or club. According to some studies, up to 38% of bettors in the UK this year placed wagers on their favourite team, regardless of whether it was an objective favourite.

Sometimes, such faith pays off handsomely. During the 2019-20 season, with just a few games left, a devoted Birmingham supporter bet on Aston Villa to avoid relegation, despite the team being seemingly doomed. His faith earned him £7,000.

Last year, Unai Emery and his squad pulled off another minor miracle, guiding Villa to a Champions League spot, rewarding loyal fans once again.

Aston Villa Top 4 Finish 24/25

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19/20

In addition to “localism,” another trend is the influence of football giants. For example, in the North West, Manchester United and Liverpool maintain a stronghold, with the Red Devils being the most popular team in the country, boasting 27% of nationwide support.

However, if a city has its own Premier League representative, about one in three bets tends to go toward that team. Take Nottingham, for instance, where the city is buzzing with excitement over their incredible start to the season. Odds on Nottingham Forest finishing in the top six have already dropped sevenfold.

Nottingham Forest Top 6 Finish

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9/1

Scattered statistics suggest that betting on a team’s victory or final position in the league is a popular pastime. It’s often seen more as a way to support one’s local or favourite team than a serious attempt to profit. After all, odds on favourites tend to be modest, and upsets—like Manchester City’s prolonged losing streak this season—are always possible. This, despite City being unanimously deemed the top title contender by virtually everyone before the season began.